EUROPEAN SHARES-Investor sentiment is now being weighed down by tougher restrictions

European shares drifted significantly lower on Thursday, following the trend started at the end of the US trading session yesterday as investors switched to risk-off. The market euphoria of the past week is fading away as investor sentiment is now being weighed down by tougher restrictions, offsetting vaccine progress in many areas. Even if the long-term recovery isn’t really threatened yet, most investors expect a market correction due to mounting risk to economies from a very short-term perspective. Having said that, a bearish short-term correction would still be technically “healthy” for stocks as it would temper the powerful rally registered in November. Today’s session is likely to remain volatile as investors will keep their focus on major macro data (initial Jobless claims and existing home sales) as well as the EU summit. The Stoxx-50 Index has recently broken-out of a bearish rising wedge and can now find significant support at first 3,440pts, then 3,400pts and ultimately at 3,355pts.

GOLD-Increased percentage success of Pfizer’s vaccine

In the last few days a stream of positive updates about vaccines have pulled up stocks. The general risk on scenario hit the gold price, triggering a notable decline last week. Yesterday, bullion dropped a further 1% on the news of the increased percentage success of Pfizer’s vaccine. So far the price has managed to remain in the lateral trading range of the last few months between $1,850 and $2,070. We are just a few dollars above the lower edge of this channel and a fall below this mark would be seen as a negative signal. Investors, anyway, should not forget the strong dovish activity of central banks, which will last for a long time and are likely to be supportive for the yellow metal.

 

FOREX-Political tug-of-war between Brussels and a Polish-Hungarian coalition

After several days dominated by a vaccine-related optimism, which offered support to the euro, headwinds are now challenging the buoyancy of the single currency, causing losses versus other major currencies. The immediate reality presents record numbers of new infections and fatalities in several European countries, reminding investors that the return to normality still remains on the distant horizon. The second wave of the pandemic will surely add to the economic woes of the continent, particularly as any stimulus package continues to be blocked by a political tug-of-war between Brussels and a Polish-Hungarian coalition.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Investors were also glad to see President-Elect Joe Biden’s adviser oppose a national US lockdow

Stocks traded higher, from Tokyo shares to US futures contracts, buoyed by rising risk appetite from investors at the beginning of the week. While last week’s vaccine announcement renewed bullish sentiment on most stock markets, another boost has been given over the weekend with the signing of the Asian trade deal on Sunday. Of course, investors welcomed the news as this trade agreement will involve some of the world’s biggest economies and most densely populated areas in the globe, but that’s not all. Investors were also glad to see President-Elect Joe Biden’s adviser oppose a national US lockdown, despite surging virus cases. This announcement has been well received by most traders as it allows them to keep their eyes on the reopening of economies and, more generally, the end of the crisis. This bullish trading stance is likely to remain for a while yet as investors welcome reassuring macro data from China, Europe and the US. However, short-term price action sparked by rising volatility may still occur in Europe as Brexit talks get more fraught as we step ever closer to the latest deadline.

CRUDE OIL-Pulling up the price of both WTI and Brent

The general enthusiastic scenario is supportive for oil prices, which started the new week still in green. Markets are still in full risk on mode with investors betting on a vaccine and with it a relatively quick solution to the pandemic and this optimism is boosting oil. Sectors previously left behind, such as energy, are now enjoying time in the limelight and this is pulling up the price of both WTI and Brent.

From a technical point of view, WTI is again facing resistance at $41.50. A clear breakout above this level, could open space for a rebound to the peak of early September around $43.20-$43.50.

FOREX-Strong risk appetite dominates the sentiment of traders

Strong risk appetite dominates the sentiment of traders during early Monday trading, with the safe-haven US dollar losing ground to other major currencies. Investors feel encouraged by positive data released overnight in Asia, showing that Japan is no longer in a recession, and China also posting encouraging industrial and retail numbers for October. These good pieces of news come on the back of the boost to international trade provided by the deal signed on Sunday by 15 Asian countries. As we reach the final stretch of 2020, by any measure a very tough year, investors can start to see a light at the end of the tunnel, following last week’s vaccine announcement and now a string of encouraging data and announcements from Asia.   

EUROPEAN SHARES-CAC-40 index has seen one of the best performance so far

European markets slid lower at the open on Friday, continuing the corrective move registered yesterday on most benchmarks, as a risk-off mood prevails. Spikes in virus infections added to the lack of progress regarding the new stimulus package in the US is a perfect occasion for investors to take some profits ahead of the weekend. However, this bearish correction shouldn’t drive markets very deeply as they have already cleared major resistances at the beginning of the week -further evidence of the strong bullish sentiment on the long-term view. The French CAC-40 index has seen one of the best performance so far, even if prices could technically go deeper before registering any rebound. The first support can be found over 5,230 pts and then 5,165 pts by extension, while the 5,450 pts/5,525 pts stays as the main objective on the short-term basis.

FOREX-The GBP regained the front foot

After losing ground to the dollar and the euro during Thursday’s trading, the pound regained the front foot during early Friday trading following press reports that Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s closest advisor is set to leave his post by Christmas. The claims that Dominic Cummings will leave his role at Downing Street, followed in-fighting within Johnson’s inner circle and represents a blow to Brexit hardliners. Given the continued uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the post-Brexit negotiations with the EU as well as the bleak economic and the continuing healthcare crisis in the country due to coronavirus, the fact that investors are this morning backing the pound suggests the departure of Cummings means there is an increased likelihood of a softer break from the EU.

EUROPEAN SHARES-The worsening virus situation in many hotspots is weighing on market sentiment

The stock market showed signs of slowing down in Europe on Thursday, despite a bullish correction in Chinese tech shares overnight, as the initial enthusiasm over a vaccine starts to wane. The worsening virus situation in many hotspots is weighing on market sentiment as it sparks fears of tougher containment measures that could bring further economic damage. While a bearish correction after the rally over the past few days would be logical and even healthy, fears of a W-shaped recovery are occupying more and more space in investors‘ minds. Today’s session is likely to remain volatile as investors will have to cautiously monitor speeches from top central bankers at the ECB forum as well as major macro data from the US (CPI and jobless claims). Technically, European benchmarks remain capped by major resistance, with buyers not strong enough to push the market higher. The DAX-30 Index has significant short-term resistance as 13,245pts and then 13,450pts. The first supports can be found just above 13,100pts and 12,900pts before the 23.6% retracement ratio at 12,825pts.

GOLD-The greenback inversely correlated with bullion and commodities.

Despite “risk off” dominating the last few days on stock markets, gold has been weak and we have seen the dollar recover, with the greenback inversely correlated with bullion and commodities. A major reason for gold’s weakness has been the sharp decline on stocks forcing some traders to close positions on gold to avoid margin calls on other losing trades. From a technical point of view, the scenario is weakening for gold, but the price – so far – has managed to remain above the key support level of $1,850. In other words, we are still inside the huge lateral trading range of the last few months between $1,850 and $2,070. A clear fall below this level could generate quick declines with stop losses likely to be placed below this threshold. For the time being investors seem to be waiting for the outcome of the US presidential election next week and its consequences for financial markets before taking up strong positions.

FOREX-Investors are concerned about the impact the second wave of the pandemic

Euro trading has been subdued so far on Friday, with the single currency almost flat to the dollar, as investors await the publication of Eurozone GDP data later today. Just like in previous sessions, risk aversion is dominating market sentiment. Investors are concerned about the impact the second wave of the pandemic and the winter lockdowns will have on economies already battered by the first wave. Even US GDP numbers published yesterday, showing economic activity had rebounded by 33.1% during Q3 failed to generate enthusiasm in the markets. Demand remained high for safe haven assets like the dollar, as the jump in last quarter’s GDP didn’t mask the fact that compared with the same period in 2019 the American economy actually shrunk by almost 3%.

FOREX-Second wave of the pandemic dominates

The euro is on the backfoot during early Wednesday trading, losing ground versus other major currencies, especially against the safe havens of the US dollar and Japanese yen. Risk aversion is the prevailing mood on the markets, as the second wave of the pandemic dominates headlines and reports point to the possibility of new national lockdowns in Germany and France, while on the other side of the Atlantic uncertainty over the outcome of next week’s presidential election is also feeding into the risk-off sentiment.  

EUROPEAN SHARES- French President Macron is now expected to announce

European shares continued their slide on Tuesday, following drops on US futures overnight. Investors continue to assess the possible impact of more and more restrictions on economies and prefer to limit their exposure to riskier assets due to rising uncertainty. This is especially true in Europe where French President Macron is now expected to announce an extended curfew as well as new social interaction limitations, following recent measures from both Italy and Spain. Furthermore, the uncertainty brought by the upcoming US Presidential election combined with disappointment over the lack of a new fiscal aid package keeps on denting investors’ risk appetite in the short-term. If this situation remains, investors are likely to increase their trading exposure towards safe havens like JPY, USD or even treasuries while equities will continue their bearish correction. Today’s session will be marked by US data with both Durable Goods Orders as well as the anticipated CB Consumer Confidence. On the corporate front, traders will be awaiting results from HSBC, Merck & Co., Microsoft, Pfizer and 3M due later today.

FOREX-Who gets to be the next US president

With one week to go until the US Presidential election, there is a sense of calm in the markets. All major currencies are almost flat as the bulk of investors now await the closing of the polling stations late on November 3. This election carries perhaps more weight than previous ones; facing a global pandemic, growing friction with China and increasing social polarisation, the choice of who gets to be the next US president could be a crucial moment in history whose impact will be felt across several market-sensitive areas, such as the stimulus package, trade wars and even Brexit on the other side of the Atlantic. So, unless something very substantial occurs between now and November 3, we should expect lower than usual volatility until the polling stations close.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Next US stimulus package

European stocks plunged alongside the S&P 500 at the beginning of Monday’s trading session, amid rising virus worries over the weekend. Most investors want to remain optimistic about the upside potential of stock markets but they are becoming increasingly sceptical about the next US stimulus package. In addition, recent record-breaking infection levels in many hotspots has led the EU to implement tougher restrictions (nationwide curfew in Spain, toughest Italian measures since May) which are widely expected to hurt businesses. Risk appetite has then significantly decreased today, with many investors seeking haven assets like bond markets and the US Dollar. Having said that, this week is likely to be a volatile one with a slew of major macro events. The Chinese Communist Party plenum runs until the 29th, both the ECB and BoJ have monetary meetings, US Q3 GDP figures are due on Thursday while intense Brexit negotiations continue to serve as a noisy backdrop. On the corporate front, reports from Coface, Bigben Interactive, Europcar Mobility, Twilio and Google are likely to increase market volatility during the day.

FOREX-New COVID infections reached new records on both sides

The Dollar Index is rising while risk-related assets are on the backfoot during early Monday trading. The week is starting under the spell of risk aversion as the number of new COVID infections reached new records on both sides of the Atlantic during the weekend, heightening fears over new lockdowns and the economic devastation they cause. At the same time, in Washington, Republican and Democrat lawmakers remain unable to reach an agreement over the size and shape of a much-needed economic stimulus package. It is not surprising that as the second wave of the pandemic engulfs Europe and politicians in the United States continue to squabble, investors look for the comfort of safe haven assets like the dollar.

EUROPEAN SHARES-US House of Representative speaker Nancy Pelosi kept driving stock prices higher

Stocks edged higher on Friday in Europe as a fresh boost was given to market sentiment following encouraging macro data. In addition to the reassuring key manufacturing data, investors also welcomed the last batch of positive earnings from carmakers as well as the banking sector, both respectively boosted by Daimler AG and Barclays PLC. On the other side of the Atlantic, US House of Representative speaker Nancy Pelosi kept driving stock prices higher by suggesting the stimulus deal was getting closer and would likely be reached before the presidential election. The last presidential debate on Thursday brought a very different tone in the exchange between the two candidates, than from the previous exchange. Polls from CNN suggest Biden prevailed in this debate as the candidate could lay down policies regarding Coronavirus, immigration and international relationships. Earnings reports continue to be central in investors’ minds this week, and many will eagerly await results from American Express in the US later today, as well as data from Renault, Air Liquide, Faurecia, Klepierre, Nanobiotix and other European companies.

GOLD-Consolidating just above the threshold of $1,900

Gold spot price is consolidating just above the threshold of $1,900. After an unsuccessful attack to $1,930, the price collapsed below $1,900, but buyers were ready to sustain bullion.

Prices are moving in a relatively tight lateral trading range between $1,880 and $1,930, while yesterday’s decline was curbed at around $1,894 - well above the lower edge of this channel.

From a technical point of view, prices rebounded on the dynamic support that we can obtain drawing together the recent series of lows shown by gold. This is confirming a moderate positive set for the gold price, and a clear break out of $1,930 would be required for any further bullish rally.

FOREX-Debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump

The dollar is losing some ground to other major currencies during early Friday trading, following last night’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Lately, the greenback has been seen as a barometer of investors sentiment, rising at times of uncertainty and dropping when optimism prevails. Interesting therefore that after the final debate between the two presidential candidates ended in a stalemate, which is more positive for the poll leading Democrat candidate, the dollar index failed to signal any sentiment of alarmism in the markets, underscoring the idea that largely investors now see a Biden victory by an undisputable margin as the most benign election outcome.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Following Asian markets and US futures amid global risk

European shares drifted lower on Thursday, following Asian markets and US futures amid global risk aversion sentiment boosted by mounting virus concerns. Stock investors remain stuck in uncertain times, with various market drivers to be considered before making their investment decisions, leading to the current lack of directionality. Whilst the next US stimulus move is already highly anticipated by most traders, most are keeping a cautious eye towards macro data as well as corporate news in order to get more clues on the impact of the pandemic. Today’s trading sessions will be marked by major US data, with initial jobless claims and existing home sales data for September due later today, as well as earning reports from large US groups like Coca Cola, AT&T and Intel. In Europe, stock investors expect more volatility on the CAC-40 index as a batch of results from French-listed companies like Dassault Systemes, Hermes, L’Oreal, Kering, Thales and Michelin are awaited during and after the trading session.

The market went to test its major support zone around 4793 pts shortly after the opening bell, and has successfully rebounded since then. Prices will have to clear the 4,800 pts level in order to unlock the bullish potential towards 4,830 pts on the very short-term. A break out of the 4,772 pts/4,804 pts zone could quickly drive prices deeper towards 4,745 pts and 4,665 pts by extension.

GOLD-Interesting assault to the resistance level at $1,930/1,932

Gold spot price rallied to $1,932 as expectations of further monetary stimulus initially grew in the US, before easing down back to $1,915 after doubts over an imminent deal emerged.

From a technical point of view, there has been an interesting assault to the resistance level at $1,930/1,932, but that level remains firm so far. Investor interest remains huge and every time politicians speak of the possibility of new economic stimulus (maybe even before the US election, so potentially in just a few days) bullion rallies. It is clear the yellow metal is seen in this phase as a rescue anchor in a different scenario. Gold could mitigate portfolio impact in case of a new stock collapse – and this is not a big news – but investors are also seeing bullion as an inflation hedge, in a scenario where central banks are pumping huge amounts of liquidity as they attempt to recover economies.

FOREX-Risk appetite rose

The dollar index, which measures the performance of the greenback versus a basket of other major currencies, has lost more than 1% since the beginning of the week as risk appetite rose and the appeal of the safe havens diminished. Hopes that Republican and Democrat law makers in Washington would reach an agreement for the release of an economic stimulus package led to an increase in optimism. However, a deal between the two parties, allowing the release of economic aid before the November 3 elections, is starting to look unlikely and as a result the greenback’s losing streak appears to have come to an end as the dollar index remains flat during early Thursday trading.

EUROPEAN SHARES-European benchmarks are being weighed down

Stocks drifted lower on Wednesday, despite bets on further US stimulus driving most Asian stocks and US Future contracts higher overnight. Investors were pleased to see the US House of Representative speaker Nancy Pelosi maintaining her “hopes” of a compromise on the next stimulus plan before the end of the week. However, while this has helped to sustain market sentiment on a very short-term basis, most investors have already priced this into their trading with any failure to deliver the plan by the end of the week likely to trigger sharp moves down on riskier assets. European benchmarks are being weighed down by both the healthcare and energy sectors this morning with traders cautiously waiting for corporate news as well as the US Crude Oil Inventories data later in the afternoon. Today’s brings earning reports from TechnipFMC and Worldline as well as results from Verizon and Tesla in the US.

The FTSE-100 index is one of today’s worst performers so far after investors’ appetite decreased amid difficult Brexit talks with the EU that are now set to continue into next week at least, if no agreement is reached between the two blocs before Friday.

FOREX- clear indication that investors are for now dismissing a no-deal scenario

The pound gained more than 0.5% versus both the dollar and the euro during early Wednesday trading, a clear indication that investors are for now dismissing a no-deal scenario. As reports emerge that UK and European officials will reignite talks, the markets have strengthened their belief that the British government’s stance of preparing for no-deal was nothing more than strategic positioning with an eye on continuing negotiations.

EUROPEAN SHARES -Covid-19 infections has made investors expect further government support

European stocks edged higher on Monday, alongside Asian shares and US Futures, despite mixed macro data from China. Positive talks between US officials about a “possible” stimulus deal prior to the elections has been sustaining market sentiment this morning but it wasn’t just that. Acceleration in the number of Covid-19 infections has made investors expect further government support on a short-term basis and it seems they are already pricing that in, with the nature of the support depending on who wins the upcoming presidential election. European investors remain focused on Brexit with surprisingly positive developments to start the week with the UK Parliament potentially forcing Prime Minister Boris Johnson to rewrite or reconsider its Internal Market Bill. This may revive stalling talks with the EU bloc after investors were disappointed to see Boris Johnson ready to walk away from the table without any deal. However, despite this early positive trading mood, investors will remain cautious and monitor corporate news as the earning season continues. All European benchmarks are trading higher, led by insurers and the banking sector, with the French CAC-40 the best performer as the market now heads up towards 5,000pts.

GOLD-The countdown clock is running down quickly with both Brexit and the US election

The countdown clock is running down quickly with both Brexit and the US election getting ever closer to an end (at least for US elections). Despite this, we are not yet seeing risk aversion on the markets with stocks continuing the rebound started on Friday. Bullion has also started the new week in green with the spot price again approaching $1,910. A clear climb above $1,925-$1,930 would open space for further rallies, while the scenario remains mostly unchanged so far with the long-term bullish trend untouched, while in the short term we are living a lateral phase in the big trading range $1,850 and $2,070. As mentioned, we have some intermediate levels, at $1,930 and $1,970 (resistances) and $1,885 and $1,872 (supports).

FOREX-The pound is on the front foot in relation to the other major currencies

The pound is on the front foot in relation to the other major currencies at the start of the trading week. Sterling gains versus the euro and the dollar are particularly significant as it shows the markets are dismissing the British government’s rhetoric that negotiations with the EU are over and the future trade relationship will be based on WTO terms as a bluff. If investors’ stance in relation to sterling is anything to go by, then negotiations are far from over and the chances of a deal between the two parts being reached are reasonably high.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Investors are still digesting the latest set of Covid-19 restrictions

An optimistic wind blew over European assets shortly after the opening bell on Friday morning, with almost all benchmarks climbing higher. Today’s risk appetite for European stocks has been boosted after investors welcomed positive developments on the corporate front. Optimism is particularly prominent in the automotive and engineering sectors after both Volvo and Thyssenkrupp reassured investors with their past performances and short-term outlooks. However, traders are still likely to face a “not-so-easy” trading session today as many uncertain market drivers remain. Investors are still digesting the latest set of Covid-19 restrictions in France and the UK with lingering concerns they may severely impact an already fragile recovery. Furthermore, volatility is likely to be on the rise today for UK shares, not only because of the expiry of options, but also because of Boris Johnson’s potential decision to walk away from the Brexit negotiation table with the EU.

GOLD-remaining steady just above $1,900

After yesterday’s sell off on European stock markets, gold is remaining steady just above $1,900. Rising figures of Covid-19 infections are increasing fears of more lockdowns with all the related consequences. In other words, the impending need for more monetary stimulus to mitigate the impact of the coronavirus-induced crisis is keeping investors’ gold appetite at its peak. That said, we should be cautious as at some point central banks will start to be more resistant in adding new stimulus, but this scenario is far from imminent.

From a technical point of view, gold still appears in a positive mode but for further rallies we would need to see a clear breakup of the $1,920-$1,930 level. A fall below $1,880 and later on below $1,860 would denote weakness.

FOREX-Brexit markets don’t expect a no deal scenario

The pound is paring gains versus the dollar and the euro during early Friday trading following a statement issued by EU leaders last night warning that a post-Brexit deal will be very unlikely unless the UK adopts a more flexible stance. With the ball now in the British court a reaction is expected from Boris Johnson’s government. Whatever happens over the next few weeks, it seems that markets don’t expect a no deal scenario, with the pound remaining very close to $1.30. The brinkmanship adopted by both parts is seen as tactical manoeuvring rather than an unwillingness to negotiate. Still, a bumpy ride is expected for sterling, with each back and forth likely to increase volatility.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Investors wait for major US data today

European stocks drifted significantly lower at the opening bell on Thursday alongside Asian markets and US Futures, with benchmarks now heading for a third bearish trading session in a row. This sudden change in investors‘ trading stance took place after the first slew of earning reports fell short of global expectations. This is especially true with Roche and Total in Europe while US investors have been disappointed by results from Bank of America and Wells Fargo. In addition, the fact the widely anticipated next US stimulus deal is unlikely to be reached prior to the presidential election is unwelcome news for stock investors around the world. However, the trading mood may change through the day as investors wait for major US data today, with the US jobless claims in sight, as well as results from Morgan Stanley and Charles Schwab. Most EU benchmarks, such as the DAX-30 Index, are now trading close to major support levels and a sharp reaction from bull traders will be needed today to prevent markets from deepening their bearish corrections.

FOREX-Investors don’t seem to believe the UK will walk away from negotiations

The pound is almost flat against both the dollar and the euro during early Thursday trading. Today brings the UK’s self-imposed deadline for a post-Brexit agreement to be reached with the EU but despite no such deal being in place and a prevailing risk-off sentiment in the markets, investors don’t seem to believe the UK will walk away from negotiations empty handed. This could be because, faced with a battered economy, climbing COVID-infection numbers and an increasingly tense domestic political environment, the last thing Boris Johnson’s government needs is another fire to extinguish.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Market sentiment remains hesitant

European markets had a mixed opening mixed on Wednesday after most benchmarks hit major support levels after yesterday’s downside moves. Market sentiment remains hesitant as most investors now seek further bullish catalysts before taking prices higher. Surprisingly, the FTSE-100 Index is one of today’s best performers with the index trading higher and evolving inside an encouraging technical configuration. The difficult negotiations between Boris Johnson and EU officials on the Brexit deal, and more specifically on fishing rights, had a significant negative impact on Sterling. However, this has also made the large companies of the FTSE-100 Index more competitive than ever on international markets and this has helped sustain investors ‘appetite.

From a technical point of view, the index is still trading inside a bearish flag pattern, challenging the 6,000pts level close to the upper band. However, the market hasn’t registered any new market low since its double rebound over 5,800pts while the Relative Strength Indicator has already broken-out of its bearish trendline as well as the key 50% level to tip the index into buy territory. Even if this is seen as a bullish situation, the price will have to clear the 6,080-6,120pts zone to unlock an extended bullish potential at first 6,170pts, then 6,300pts, then 6,420pts and ultimately 6,510pts. On the downside, the first available support is at 5,950pts on a short-term basis.

GOLD- Challenge the psychological threshold of $2,000.

The greenback’s recovery has curbed gold’s rebound. In fact, gold’s decline was even steeper proportionally than the dollar’s recovery, highlighting the difficulties bullion to climb above and even to hold onto the key level of $1,920. This area, firstly reached in 2011 and for almost a decade the record high for gold, is now the first real resistance for bullion. Moreover, we can also see that at $1,880-$1,885 buyers started to react and pulled the spot price back up to $1,890-$1,900. This is important as bullion, at least for the time being, didn’t fall to $1,850-$1,860, which is a major support to monitor. In other words, we are still in a wide lateral phase, in the trading range between $1,850 and $2,070. Bullion will need to break through $1,920 to have the chance to once again challenge the psychological threshold of $2,000.

FOREX- Demand for dollar-denominated assets increases

A series of medical setbacks in the fight against COVID is hindering risk appetite resulting in the continuation of dollar gains against the other major currencies for the second day in row. In a pattern observed since the beginning of the pandemic, demand for dollar-denominated assets increases whenever fear drives investors away from riskier instruments. However, the greenback’s gains are to some extent subdued and counterbalanced by optimism about the release of an economic stimulus package and the outcome of the American presidential election, with polls indicating an increasing likelihood of a Joe Biden victory by a clear margin, avoiding the nightmare scenario of a disputed result.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Investors may choose to temper their exposure

Shares drifted lower at the beginning of the European trading session on Tuesday as market sentiment remains weighed down by increasing uncertainty, despite encouraging Chinese data overnight. Investors’ risk appetite is on hold today following delays and difficulties in the development of a vaccine from Johnson & Johnson, while infection numbers keep on increasing everywhere. In addition, stock traders are becoming ever more disappointed by the failure of the US administration to deliver a new deal on further stimulus measures and must deal with the uncertainty of the upcoming presidential election. Having said that, and after yesterday’s rally on techs, many investors may choose to temper their exposure to stay on the “safe side” ahead of the earning season and its usual higher market volatility. With this in mind, investors’ attention will be focused on the financial sector with Citigroup, JPM and Blackrock all publishing their results today. There is unlikely to be any significant sell-off today as tech stocks are likely to offset any losses in the travel and leisure sector triggered by vaccine delays.

OIL-Investors are waiting for oil industry reports

The countdown to the US election is drawing into sharper focus and as the odds of a Biden victory increase (implied probability went up from 65 to 69.2% over the weekend), investors are betting on the likeliest scenarios for oil in the next few years. A Biden victory could see less support for the shale oil industry, pulling up the oil price as a result. Vice versa, if Trump manages to defeat forecasts, shale oil would probably benefit from the tycoon’s help. Despite this, Trump could be supportive for the barrel through any potential new stimulus, which could boost (or drug?) the economy further.

From a technical point of view, WTI remains just below $40, after the price slipped yesterday. Investors are waiting for oil industry reports due out today to provide new directionality to the price.

FOREX-Risk aversion is the prevailing sentiment

Risk aversion is the prevailing sentiment for financial markets early on Tuesday, with the main stock indices in Asia and Europe in the red and US futures pointing in the same direction. It is therefore hardly surprising that the dollar has recovered some of the ground lost over the last few days, after hitting a 3-week low versus other major currencies on Monday. The greenback’s gains versus risk-related currencies result from a setback in the development of a Covid vaccine by Johnson & Johnson, the continued stand-off between bipartisan lawmakers in Washington preventing the approval of an economic stimulus package plus a new addition to the party in the shape of a fresh dose of Chinese assertiveness banning the import of several key commodities from Australia. The latter factor reminds us that the latent trade and tech conflict between the Asian giant and Western economies continues to cast a shadow over global economic growth perspectives.

GOLD-Investors are waiting for new market movers

Gold is consolidating after Friday afternoon’s sharp rally with investors waiting for new market movers. Although this could be a crucial week for Brexit, this doesn’t seem to be an important issue for bullion with news from central banks and US politics much more likely to trigger movements. We are in a wait and see scenario, as investors try to understand what is going to happen in early November with the US election and the subsequent reaction of both stocks and currency markets. Technically gold is regaining strength with the consolidation above $1,920 a supportive signal for bullion and confirming traders’ huge interest.

FOREX-Investors are now pausing

The Dollar Index remains flat as trading gets underway this week after dropping more than 0.5% during Friday. Investors are now pausing to see how negotiations for a stimulus package unfold in Washington. Last week's losses resulted from increasing hopes of an agreement between Democrats and Republicans that would allow the release of the much-needed funds. Such a scenario is positive for the country’s future economic prospects and diminishes demand for safe havens, with the dollar’s appeal waning as a result.

EUROPEAN SHARES-A new US stimulus package continues to sustain market sentiment.

European equities traded higher on Thursday, alongside Asian benchmarks and Futures on the S&P 500, as optimism about a new US stimulus package continues to sustain market sentiment. Investors’ risk appetite continues to grow as US lawmakers move closer to a new deal, while yesterday’s minutes from the last FOMC meeting also showed further support from US central bankers may also be on its way and this is helping to drive stocks higher everywhere. It is interesting to note that while the EU already successfully reassured investors by providing an unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus response earlier this year, most EU stock traders are focusing solely on the latest developments in the US, despite record infection numbers being registered on the old continent (France, Italy and Spain). Increased market volatility is expected this afternoon as the ECB’s Monetary Policy Statement as well as the Initial Jobless Claims data in the US loom. Today’s best performances come from Madrid with financial and energy shares leading the IBEX-35 Index higher, inside its major resistance zone around the crucial 7,000pts level.

GOLD-Continuing a slow dance just above $1,890

Gold is slightly up in the early trading, while volatility remains low. The spot price was unable to surpass the first key level of $1,895, continuing a slow dance just above $1,890. It seems investors are in a wait and see mode as they are still hoping for new stimulus from central banks to help the economy’s recovery. Meanwhile, they are carefully following US politics and the approaching presidential election in early November, trying to predict what impact it will have on US monetary policy and consequently on the US dollar and the gold price.

From a technical point of view, bullion remains in a lateral trading range between $1,850 and $2,070, waiting for a clear new direction.

FOREX-Investors await the speeches of ECB officials

Early Thursday trading started under the spell of continued risk appetite, with the depreciation of the safe haven dollar reflecting the sentiment of investors, whose mood lifted after the US President backtracked on his intention to postpone the approval of an economic stimulus package. With global stocks on the rise, the euro would normally be one of the beneficiaries of the current risk-on stance, but today the single currency’s performance is subdued relative to the dollar as investors await the speeches of ECB officials during the day, who in the past, under similar circumstances, have attempted to talk-down euro strength.

EUROPEAN SHARES -Important bullish impact on both US and Asian stock market

Monday’s optimism on President Trump’s improving health conditions as well as hopes of further stimulus from US lawmakers recently had an important bullish impact on both US and Asian stock markets, however, this sentiment isn’t continuing in Europe today after benchmarks opened mixed. While many investors welcomed the good news from the US, they may also prefer to stay cautious prior to today’s speeches from the chairs of both the ECB and the FED, Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell. While nothing significant is really expected today from the central banks, investors will still scrutinize these speeches in order to get more clues on where monetary policies will be going soon, which could have an important impact on both the FX and stock markets. Today’s best performances are so far coming from the energy and industrial sector while healthcare and real estate trade at the bottom of the table. The IBEX-35 Index from Madrid leads the way so far in Europe and is now trading well above 6,830pts, closer to its major resistance at 6,900pts.

FOREX-The Dollar Index is almost flat in relation to other currencies

The Dollar Index is almost flat in relation to other currencies during early Tuesday trading. Today’s calm comes after the dollar dropped more than 0.4% during Monday, as risk appetite improved following the discharge of the US President from hospital and rising hopes that a deal between Democrats and Republicans will be reached by lawmakers in Washington on a much-needed fiscal stimulus package. The progress of these talks will be closely followed by the financial markets, as will any developments surrounding Donald Trump’s health with no news being good news for the greenback in the case of the latter.

EUROPEAN SHARES-The DAX-30 Index is one of the eurozone’s worst performers

European stocks opened on a mixed tone on Tuesday as rising concerns and uncertainty globally put pressure on prices. Investors who chose to take profits following the rally since the 23rd of March may be tempted to keep on doing so after new virus cases were recorded in South Korea and Wuhan, highlighting fears of a new wave. We are now in a crucial phase where investors, after the recent mixed data and corporate results, desperately need more clarity on the short to mid-term outlook. Even though most market operators believe the virus peak is now behind us, they still need more evidence that economies are back on track and that the pathogenic agent is firmly contained before increasing their exposure to risk assets. Additionally, market sentiment is being shaken by rising US-China tensions, especially after President Trump declined a request from Chinese officials to renegotiate the Phase One trade deal. Traders now have to deal with two different bearish leverages on stocks: the 2020 virus crisis as well as a resurgence of 2019’s trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, which is making for a very difficult trading environment ahead of the summer season.

 

The DAX-30 Index is one of the eurozone’s worst performers with the price dancing near its open price level. Technically, the market has failed to clear the 10,980-11,120pts zone previously mentioned and slipped back to their double support (trendline + 55-day moving average). Even if a pull-back towards 11,000pts remains possible, a break out down below the support level at 10,770pts is now the most likely scenario on a short-term basis. If that support fails then the subsequent ones are at around 10,545pts and 10,200pts.

OIL-Investors are betting on a V-shaped recovery for economies

Investors are betting on a V-shaped recovery for economies and a similar scenario on oil demand. Moreover, they are seemingly confident that there will be space in Cushing’s oil tanks at the expiries of the contracts in the coming months. All this sounds a bit too optimistic but what we have seen is that in just three weeks the price of the June WTI contract has trebled from the bottom reached on April 20-21 at $7, when the May contract finished its life in negative. It is currently above $24 amid lower volatility in a market trying to consolidate after the brutal moves of the last few weeks.

GOLD-The spot price of gold is consolidating just above the threshold of $1,700

The spot price of gold is consolidating just above the threshold of $1,700 in a scenario where investors remain bullish on gold but require fresh stimuli to generate another rally. In particular, we need to note that risk-on has dominated the last few weeks on stock markets, with a huge recovery after March’s sharp fall. This means that many investors have moved some of their liquidity back to stocks, hoping for a quick buck. Of course, if this scenario changes gold can be king again and price could climb above its recent peaks.

FOREX-COVID-19 cases in countries that eased lockdown restrictions

After Monday’s gains versus other major currencies, the US dollar is taking a breather and stabilising during early trading in Europe on Tuesday European. However, further gains are likely for the dollar because the Fed is giving increasing signals that it is unwilling to take interest rates into negative territory. At the same time, reports of a growth in numbers of new COVID-19 cases in countries that eased lockdown restrictions, such as China and Germany, are causing concern for investors and to some extent driving dollar gains as a safe-haven trade.

ЕВРОПЕЙСКИ АКЦИИ-ЕС отбелязаха по-висока стойност в понеделник

Въпреки смесената сесия за търговия в Азия, пазарите на акции на ЕС отбелязаха по-висока стойност в понеделник, тъй като инвеститорите усвоиха, уверявайки актуализациите на вирусите от Италия, Франция и Великобритания. Инвеститорите, които вече залагаха на възстановяването, бяха доволни, че тези три европейски държави регистрират най-ниските си нива на смъртност от март, преди облекчаването на облекчаването в тези райони. Това повишаване на настроението видя, че пазарите се търгуват по-силно в цяла Европа на първоначалния звънец, въпреки че инвеститорите вероятно ще останат предпазливи през идните дни и седмици със страха от втора вълна. В допълнение, много от бичи трейдъри вече са на цени на пазари, като някои търговци се чудят дали все още има място за удължено рали тази седмица. В резултат на това търговците могат да бъдат изкушени да извлекат печалби преди натоварената седмица със значителни данни, дължими от Китай и САЩ, както и очаквания месечен пазарен отчет на ОПЕК, който предстои в сряда. Несигурността и нестабилността вероятно ще нарастват тази седмица и това може да доведе до намалена експозиция на по-рискови активи от инвеститорите.

 

FTSE-MIB от Милано днес е най-добрият производител, като пазарът вече е пробил двойното си съпротивление при 17 530 пункта (50% Фибоначи + Скоростна линия) и сега се търгува близо до 17 450 пункта. Въпреки това, лентите на Bollinger се разширяват, което показва повишаваща се променливост, а цената вече е близо до горната й лента, което предполага отдръпване към 17,380-17,315 пункта.

FOREX-ФОРЕКС-Над 20 милиона работни места са загубени в САЩ

Доларът и еврото започват седмицата сравнително плоско . Единната валута намери известна подкрепа от първата фаза на възобновяване на икономиката, която сега е в процес в няколко европейски държави. Въпреки тази добра новина, неизбежният факт остава, че мерките за блокиране са имали огромно влияние върху световната икономика, като над 20 милиона работни места са загубени в САЩ през април, а много други страни съобщават подобно големи цифри. Повече движения се очакват по-късно през седмицата, с публикуването на няколко групи данни, включително данни за БВП на ЕС.