EUROPEAN SHARES-Stocks rose in Europe

Stocks rose in Europe on Tuesday, following a mixed trading session in Asia despite reassuring data from China overnight. Stock markets around the world have extended their very-short-term rally with investors’ appetite towards risky assets revived amid signs of stabilization in the number of coronavirus cases in some of the worst affected countries in Europe. Italy reported its lowest number of daily new cases in weeks while the data also seems to be trending lower in Germany as well as in Spain. However, even if the current rally limits losses as we head into Q2, the outlook remains bearish for Europe. First, it is far from certain that the bottom of the market is definitely behind us. Secondly, even if it is, investors around the world are highly likely to soon start pricing in the negative impacts of such massive monetary adjustments from central banks. This situation is especially true in Europe where the ECB is likely to get out of the crisis with record levels of debt, which will certainly impact on the robustness of the EU bloc. 

The Stoxx-50 Index is trading higher today, above 2800pts, led by travel and leisure shares. The German DAX-30 Index is today’s best performer with the market challenging the upper band of its consolidation zone, a clearing of which could drive prices higher still towards 10,200pts and 10,435pts by extension. Both the MACD indicator and the 55-day moving average are giving bullish signals, however, another failure to break through the ceiling at 10,065pts could lead prices down to support levels at first 9,970pts and then 9,815pts.

OIL-WTI climbing back above $21

Oil price is attempting a difficult rebound with WTI climbing back above $21 after sinking to a 17-year-low of $19.40 yesterday evening. Rumours about talks between Putin and Trump, will include discussions on the oil price, are giving some hope to the barrel amid a backdrop of its dramatic performance YTD that shows a loss of 60% while a huge oversupply risk continues to dominate sentiment.

GOLD-volatility has slowed down

In the last few trading sessions volatility has slowed down on gold with the price consolidating just above $1,600 with stock markets also seemingly found more stability after their recent plunges. Despite this, uncertainty remains just around the corner as the impact of coronavirus on the global economy will be significant. 

The technical scenario remains unchanged as a fall below $1,590 would denote some weakness, while a clear surpass of $1,640 could open the doors for further recoveries. It will be interesting to see the reaction of gold once the risk off scenario returns to the markets, with potential space for more gains for bullion.

FOREX-Higher demand for dollars from global businesses

The dollar is recording gains against the two global safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. One explanation offered by some is a higher demand for dollars from global businesses as the fiscal year comes to an end. However, the main reason for the greenback’s strength versus the haven currencies is the better-than-expected Chinese PMI data for March, which could indicate the return of some form of normality, just enough to lift the spirits of some investors.

EUROPEAN SHARES-World consolidating towards the tops

European shares drifted lower on Monday, despite bullish moves in before the market opened on the back of another set of stimulus moves from Asia. Market volatility isn’t as extreme as what the levels it has reached over the past few weeks but still remains unusually high. That said most indices are now getting starting to stabilize with markets around the world consolidating towards the tops of their bullish retracement reached last week amid a belief that the bottom may be behind us now. On the other hand, the deteriorating health situation continues to have a serious impact on investors’ exposure to risk assets.  Some portfolio managers think it will take a long time for the situation to get back to normal with reversal in the trend reversal expected until a vaccine is successfully created. 

The IBEX-35 from Madrid is the worst performer so far with the price trading below 6,600pts. The 34-day moving average has reversed and now plays a resistance role in a market already heading for the lower band of its short-term bullish channel. A break-out below 6,345pts could extend the current slump to 5,875pts with 5,500pts and then 5,120pts the key levels afterwards.

OIL-Markets are now betting that the crisis could be relatively long

The weakness of stock markets is adding further bearish pressure on the oil price, with the WTI benchmark again approaching the psychological threshold of $20. Markets are now betting that the crisis could be relatively long, and the barrel is the perfect asset to be shorted by traders. From a technical point of view, the price is now dancing between the significant figure of $20 and the support at $20.50, which is the bottom reached in the last few weeks. A clear fall below $20 would open space for further declines amid this massively bearish trend.

GOLD-Investors are in a “wait and see” mode

The new week has started with gold still trading around $1,615-$1,620, more or less the same value as on Friday despite a volatile start which saw the price jump above $1,635 in very early trading. The fact that the price was unable to hold above $1,630 confirms that investors are in a “wait and see” mode with the sideways movement of the last 5 days between $1,595 and $1,640 continues. For now, the huge amount of liquidity that the Fed is going to send into the markets has been unable to generate further gold rallies, but the scenario could quickly change.

FOREX-The GPB is recording losses

After several consecutive sessions of gains versus other major currencies, the pound is recording losses during the early part of Monday’s session, having traded at $1.2316, almost 0.9% down against the dollar. The weakness of sterling is a result of the United Kingdom having its credit rating downgraded from AA to AA- by Fitch on Friday. This decision is of course related to the massive undertaking in spending the British government has committed to in order to mitigate the damage from the coronavirus fallout. When combined with that other old chestnut of the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU and the country’s fiscal spending spree is likely to keep the Pound under pressure.

EUROPEAN SHARES-The market sentiment remains alive

Friday saw most European benchmarks consolidate following a solid three day rally. The market sentiment remains alive today, thanks to the global support measures taken in almost every region. However, investors around the world may be tempted to take some profits before the weekend. The spread of the virus doesn’t seem to be slowing down and has even accelerated strongly in the US during the last few days. The nation recently overtook China in terms of number of cases, following a surge in New York and the situation is likely to continue to weigh on investors’ risk appetite the longer no peak or curve inversion appears in sight in critical zones such as the US or western Europe. 

Today’s trading is expected to remain volatile but lacking a clear direction. No major data release is due today and many traders are already looking ahead to next week’s developments on Europe’s strategy to contain the impact of the virus after leaders failed to reach a concrete plan yesterday. The Stoxx-600 Index is trading slightly lower with the price weighed down by the banking and mining sectors. The FTSE-MIB Index from Milan as well as the German DAX-30 are among the most resilient markets today with prices still consolidating inside a tight trading range. The DAX-30 Index is still trading above 9,745pts but recently failed to clear the 10,050pts zone. A fall through the lower band of the bullish channel may lead prices down towards the lower support levels at 9,440pts and 9,300pts.

GOLD-Volatility remains high

Gold seems to have found some stability after the liquidity collapse seen earlier this week and the price is reflecting this, with bullion moving between $1,595 and $1,640 while waiting for new directional signals. Volatility remains high but is lower than the levels seen last week. Markets are likely to price in the huge increase in liquidity which is going to be flooded into circulation by central banks to tackle this crisis and could represent a supportive element for the gold price.

On a separate note, we should also mention that logistical problems with physical deliveries will continue as the virus has interrupted the supply chain and this is something that suppliers won't be able to resolve quickly.

FOREX-EUR gained more than 3.5% against the USD

After four days of solid gains, during which the euro gained more than 3.5% against the dollar, the single currency is on the backfoot today and is down slightly against not only the greenback but also versus all other major currencies. Euro weakness can, at least to some degree, be explained by disappointment following yesterday’s EU summit. European leaders failed to reach an agreement on the issuance of the so-called ‘corona bonds,’ which in essence are a pan-European bond where all members of the single currency share the risk. Germany and Holland refused to step in and share the risk with their less well-off partners in the south of the continent. This lack of solidarity between north and south, rich and poor, is undermining the single currency as another eurozone crisis now looms on the horizon, with echoes of 2012. The spread between German and Italian bonds continues to increase, in a development apparently faced with some indifference by Northern European countries.

EUROPEAN SHARES-uncertainty remains the overriding sentiment

Share markets opened lower everywhere in Europe on Thursday as uncertainty remains the overriding sentiment and has pushed investors into taking any profits generated by this week’s recovery attempt. The fact remains that investors from around the world have welcomed the recent historical batch of monetary and fiscal responses to coronavirus and these measures have helped traders gain a clearer view and more certainty about the future of the global economy. However, most investors now fear the human and economic struggle against the deadly virus will continue further into Q2, Q3 and even possibly Q4, which would deepen the impact across all economies and drive some regions into a profound recession cycle. So far, markets in Europe are being driven lower by the mining, energy and the discretionary consumer sectors with companies like Linde and LVMH among the eurozone’s worst performers. Surprisingly, the FTSE-MIB is one of the most resilient indices so far in Europe with the market still trading above 16,560pts following a clearing of its bearish trendline yesterday while the RSI indicator, which is above its 50% zone, is showing a very short-term bullish pressure. 18,260pts remains the first target for the market while a fall below 16,560pts would open the way to new lows around 15,800pts and then 13,780pts.

OIL-The combination of coronavirus and the failed OPEC

Oil attempted to rebound earlier this morning but despite these dramatically volatile times, the price remains drowned by growing expectation of a huge oversupply. The combination of coronavirus and the failed OPEC+ deal is putting the barrel in an extremely dangerous situation. Technically, the first key resistance area has now been moved to $25, on the peak reached yesterday, while $23-$23.20 is an interesting area of support which is stopping further declines. However, any fall below this zone could generate renewed selling momentum. Many automatic stop losses are now placed below this level as investors are still expecting another return to $20-$21 amid the coronavirus crisis further degenerating and with it an even more severe hit to the long term demand for oil.

FOREX- new Covid-19 cases in the US is spiking

The dollar is down against the euro, the yen and the pound during early Thursday trading, as investors await the publication of the initial jobless claim numbers in the United States with some anxiety. It is widely expected that these numbers will be extremely high, potentially the worst in many decades due to the abrupt economic slowdown caused by the measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus. At the same time the number of new Covid-19 cases in the US is spiking, further weighing the greenback down. It is interesting to note that the dollar’s weakness is occurring despite the White House and Congress having reached an agreement on an economic aid package worth $2 trillion, reinforcing the idea that during these interesting times the virus is setting the agenda, not policy makers.

EUROPEAN SHARES-The bullish mood continues in Europe

The bullish mood continues in Europe on Wednesday with shares extending this week’s advance following gains registered overnight by Asian shares. Today’s boosted market sentiment comes from Washington as investors were happy to see the White House finally confirming an agreement on the Covid-19 response bill with the Senate and pushed prices higher. Even if we are seeing much less volatility on share markets than the weeks before, the trading environment remains blurry and it’s still hard to know if the current rally will turn into a proper recovery or a simple bearish market correction. Most European benchmarks are now getting closer and closer to major resistance levels and, with no significant progress on the fight against the deadly virus, we can expect a sharp reaction when the prices challenge these zones. 

All of the European indices are in green territory today with notable gains coming from London to Madrid, which are being driven higher by the financial, industrial and basic material sectors. The Stoxx-50 Index is trading above 2,800pts as well as reversing the trend of its 55-day moving average. However, the market will still have to breach strong resistance at 2,855pts to close the bearish gap opened at the beginning of March.

OIL-Risk on remains predominant on markets

Risk-on remains predominant on markets. This is moderately helping the oil price in its attempt at a difficult recovery, as investors are still worried about the huge oversupply that is likely to remain the main topic for the next few months.  The WTI price jumped up to $25 in the first part of the week, but for the time being has been unable to continue this recovery. Despite the huge measures agreed by the US Government and the Fed, investors are waiting to see a clearer picture about coronavirus and a possible path to the end of this global problem.

GOLD-The risk-on dynamic

The gold price is slowing down after two impressive sessions of gains. The risk-on dynamic, which in the last 48 hours largely dominated the markets, is not supporting bullion price, while investors are probably switching some liquidity back to stocks. Technically we have a first support at $1,595, which is today’s low, while a clear break out above $1,630 would open space for further rallies.

FOREX-Markets reacted positively to the latest news

The pound is on the front foot against both the dollar and the euro. Sterling is benefiting from the improvement in market sentiment following several announcements of government-led rescue packages and intervention from central banks on an unprecedented scale across the globe. Markets reacted positively to the latest news of a deal being struck between the White House and Congress for an economic aid package of $2 trillion aimed at mitigating the fallout from the coronavirus crisis on the economy of the United States. Risk related assets recorded gains and the pound joined the bandwagon. The question now is, will this risk rally be sustainable or will it be diluted amidst the expected torrent of negative economic performance indicators investors will soon be presented with? Economies across the globe are showing signs of shrinking at unprecedented speeds and that realisation is likely to overshadow any positive sentiment generated by financial rescue packages and intervention.

ЕВРОПЕЙСКИ АКЦИИ-Акциите скочиха в Европа, продължавайки тренда от азиатските рейтинги

Акциите скочиха в Европа, продължавайки тренда от азиатските рейтинги, докато американските фючърси също сочат към по-твърдо отворено във вторник. Това внезапно възраждане на апетита към рискови активи дойде на фона на признаци за подобрение в някои от най-силно засегнатите региони. Наскоро континенталният Китай постигна наистина добър напредък и сега се казва, че премахва блокирането на Ухан, мястото на първото огнище на вируса, на 8 април. 

Междувременно в Европа, новият епицентър на болестта Covid-19, Италия и Германия регистрират все по-малко и по-малко нови ежедневни случаи, което показва, че драконовските мерки, предприети от правителствата, работят. Вероятността за настъпване на пик е основната информация за инвеститорите в момента, тъй като повечето от тях все още се борят с въпроса дали пазарът може да намалее или не. Много инвеститори ще се изкушат да закупят на дъното, но повечето от тях биха искали да влязат на пазара с по-голяма сигурност, отколкото сега.

Засега енергийните дялове и миньорите са най-мощният сектор в Европа и са основните участници, които определят по-високите показатели днес. Най-доброто представяне идва както от индекса DAX-30 на Франкфурт, така и от италианския FTSE-MIB с компании като Siemens, Total и ASML търговия много по-високи от вчера.

Техническата конфигурация на индекса DAX-30 е наистина интересна, тъй като пазарът може да е на прага на валидиране на обърнат модел на обръщане на главата и раменете (виж приложената диаграма), който е изграден със значителни обеми и може да види сегашния възходящ импулс натиснете цената до 10 215, 10 900 и в крайна сметка 11 600 за краткосрочна база. Въпреки това, първо трябва да се изчисти нивото на съпротивление при 9 366пункта.

ЗЛАТО-Цената на златото се оказва перфектната среда

Цената на златото се оказва перфектната среда, като първо Федералният резерв освободи потенциално неограничения пакет стимули, последван от закриването на някои швейцарски рафинерии за злато поради коронавирус. Затова е малко изненада, че цената скочи, въпреки временното връщане на риска от настроения към пазарите. Освен това огромният QE, обещан от Фед, вдига запасите и виждаме положителна връзка между златото и в резултат на това се сближават. Инвеститорите не само залагат, че коронавирусът вече може да бъде победен в разумен срок, но и че централните банки все още ще могат да спрат икономическата криза, която обикновено следва с хипер-експанзивната си парична политика. Този разход на пари е друг положителен елемент за кюлчетата, тъй като златото, за разлика от зелените пари, не може да бъде отпечатано.

ФОРЕКС-ВАЛУТИ-Еврото спечели над 1,5% спрямо щатския долар

Еврото спечели над 1,5% спрямо щатския долар от началото на сесията в понеделник, като повечето от тези печалби дойдоха след вчерашното съобщение от Федералния резерв за безпрецедентен спасителен пакет. Американската централна банка FED обеща да закупи неограничени количества ценни книжа и обезпечени с ипотека ценни книжа, както и да предостави финансови програми за домакинствата и малкия бизнес. Докато други централни банки обещаха да направят това, което е необходимо, Фед почти обеща да направи всичко! Този титаничен ход е предназначен основно за подпомагане на реалната икономика в момент на сериозни затруднения, но също така подкрепя пазарите. Това се отразява в промяна в преобладаващите настроения от изключителния риск през последните две седмици до малко по-положителни перспективи, както се вижда от задграничните печалби от активи, свързани с риска. 

Загубите на долара USD се дължат на изключително голямото бреме, което току-що пое американската централна банка; след като нещата започнат да се връщат към нормалното, зелената грешка със сигурност ще се обезцени още по-значително.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Stocks jumped in Europe, continuing the trend from Asian benchmark

Stocks jumped in Europe, continuing the trend from Asian benchmarks, while US futures are also pointing to a firmer open on Tuesday. This sudden revival of an appetite for risk assets came amid signs of improvement in some of the hardest hit regions. Mainland China has made really good progress recently and is now said to be lifting the Wuhan lockdown, the location of the very first virus outbreak, on the 8th of April. Meanwhile in Europe, the new epicentre of the Covid-19 disease, Italy and Germany are registering fewer and fewer new daily cases, which shows the draconian measures taken by governments are working. The likelihood of a peak to come is the key piece of information to investors right now as most of them still struggle with the question of whether the market can go lower or not. Many investors will be tempted to buy the dip but most of them would like to enter the market with more certainty than there is now. 

So far energy shares and miners are the most powerful sectors in Europe and are the main contributors driving benchmarks higher today. The best performance is coming from both the DAX-30 Index of Frankfurt and the Italian FTSE-MIB with companies like Siemens, Total and ASML trading much higher than yesterday. 

The technical configuration of the DAX-30 Index is really interesting as the market may be on the verge of validating an inverted “Head and Shoulders” reversal pattern (see attached chart) that has been built with significant volumes and could see the current bullish momentum push the price to 10,215pts, 10,900pts and ultimately 11,600pts on a short term-basis. However, the resistance level at 9,360pts will need to be cleared first.

GOLD-The gold price finds itself the perfect environment

The gold price finds itself the perfect environment with first the Federal Reserve unleashing its potentially unlimited stimulus package, followed by the closure of some Swiss gold refineries due to coronavirus. Therefore, it is little surprise that the price is jumping, despite the temporary return of risk on sentiment to markets. Moreover, the huge QE promised by the Fed is lifting up stocks and we are seeing a positive correlation between gold and as a result with them both rallying. Investors are not only betting that coronavirus can now be defeated in a reasonable timeframe, but also that central banks will still be able to stop the economic crisis that would typically follow with their hyper-expansive monetary policies. This splurge of cash is another positive element for bullion, as gold, unlike greenbacks, cannot be printed. 

FOREX-The euro has gained more than 1.5% against the US dollar since the start of Monday’s session

The euro has gained more than 1.5% against the US dollar since the start of Monday’s session, with most of those gains coming after yesterday’s announcement from the Fed of an unprecedented rescue package. The American central bank promised to buy unlimited quantities of treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, as well as providing finance programs for households and small businesses. While other central banks promised to do what it takes, the Fed pretty much promised to do everything! This titanic move is primarily designed to help the real economy, at a time of extreme hardship, but is also supportive of the markets. This is reflected in a change in the prevailing sentiment from the extreme risk-off of the last two weeks to a somewhat more positive outlook, as illustrated by the across-the-board gains on risk related assets. The dollar’s losses are due to the extreme burden the American central bank has just taken on; once things start returning to normal the greenback will surely depreciate even more significantly. 

EUROPEAN SHARES

Shares tumbled globally on Monday, with prices returning to last week’s lows as the spread of the deadly virus continues to have a big impact on market sentiment. Even though most markets tried to consolidate around major technical support zones last week after one of the steepest declines in decades, investors’ trading stance remains clearly bearish once again this week. The recent monetary and fiscal stimulus packages provided by central banks as well as nations around the globe didn’t have the expected impact on markets as most investors await reassuring data on the virus front. The fact the death toll continues to rise everywhere, with no peak in sight, is the main driving force sending markets lower at the moment. Investors remain very worried to see governments struggling, especially in Europe, to flatten the curve of Covid-19 cases even though a lag certainly exists between draconian measures being taken and actual daily data of new cases and deaths. Elsewhere, the fact the US Congress failed to agree on an aid plan didn’t assure markets and investors are now anticipating US GDP to shrink by a record 30% in Q2.  

The worst performers on the Stoxx-600 so far is coming from companies like Linde, BASF and Air Liquide, who have all recorded sharp drops in their share price. The FTSE-100 Index is trading at the bottom of the table today with the price falling below 4,800pts early in the morning before registering a slight rebound to 5,000pts, which is the main resistance for the price at the moment.

CRUDE-BRENT-WTI OIL

The barrel has fallen again as there is simply too much oil with a massive oversupply generated from this crisis scenario where demand has fallen, and supply has grown. The strong rebound of Friday, when the price lifted to $28, was over in just a few hours, and oil has fallen again to test the key support level at $21. In the last few hours we have seen a rebound to $22.50, which can be considered a modest rebound in the current conditions of huge volatility. Technically the holding support zone of $20.50-$21 is now crucial. The first positive signal would only arrive if prices manage to recover and hold on to $24, as the overwhelming sentiment remains very bearish and hugely volatile.

FOREX

The dollar is on the backfoot against the yen during the early part of Monday’s session, with the Japanese currency gaining almost 0.8% to the greenback. In light of the recent dynamic for this pair, the yen’s gains are remarkable. The dollar has been on a winning streak since the 10th of March, amassing gains of about 8.5% against the yen until the start of today’s session. The halting of the greenback’s gallop is, at least partially, the result of a coordinated move by the Fed and several other central banks around the globe to increase the liquidity of the American currency. Many of the recent dollar gains came from the difficulties many international businesses felt in finding sufficient quantities of the currency for payments, which was obviously pushing up the dollar’s value.

EUROPEAN SHARES-ЕВРОПЕЙСКИ АКЦИИ

Акциите паднаха в световен мащаб в понеделник, като цените се върнаха до най-ниските нива от миналата седмица, тъй като разпространението на смъртоносния вирус продължава да има голямо влияние върху настроенията на пазара. Въпреки че повечето пазари се опитаха да се консолидират около основните зони за техническа подкрепа миналата седмица след един от най-стръмните спадове от десетилетия насам, търговската позиция на инвеститорите остава очевидно отново понижаваща тази седмица. Неотдавнашните парични и фискални пакети за стимулиране, предоставени от централните банки, както и от държави по целия свят, не оказаха очакваното въздействие върху пазарите, тъй като повечето инвеститори очакват успокояващи данни за вируса на фронта. Фактът, че смъртният брой продължава да нараства навсякъде, без да има връх, е основната движеща сила, която изпраща пазарите по-ниски в момента. Инвеститорите продължават да са много притеснени от това, че правителствата се борят, особено в Европа, да изравнят кривата на случаите на Covid-19, въпреки че със сигурност съществува изоставане между драконовските мерки и действителните ежедневни данни за нови случаи и смърт. От друга страна, фактът, че Конгресът на САЩ не успя да постигне план за помощ, не гарантира пазарите и инвеститорите сега очакват БВП на САЩ да се свие с рекордните 30% през второто тримесечие.

Най-лошите изпълнители на Stoxx-600 до момента идват от компании като Linde, BASF и Air Liquide, които всички са регистрирали резки спадове в цената на акциите си. Индексът FTSE-100 се търгува в дъното на таблицата днес, като цената пада под 4 800пункта рано сутрин, преди да регистрира лек отскок до 5000 пункта, което е основната съпротива за цената в момента.

OIL-НЕФТ-ПЕТРОЛ

Петролът отново падна, тъй като просто има твърде много петрол с огромно свръхпредлагане, генерирано от този кризисен сценарий, където търсенето е спаднало, а предлагането е нараснало. Силният отскок в петък, когато цената се повиши до 28 долара, приключи само за няколко часа, а петролът отново падна, за да тества ключовото ниво на подкрепа от 21 долара. През последните няколко часа видяхме отскок до $ 22.50, което може да се счита за скромен отскок в сегашните условия на огромна нестабилност. В техническо отношение зоната за подкрепа от 20,50 до 21 долара вече е от решаващо значение. Първият положителен сигнал ще пристигне само ако цените успеят да се възстановят и задържат до $ 24, тъй като преобладаващите настроения остават много мечешки и силно променливи.

FOREX-ФОРЕКС

Доларът губи спрямо йената в началото на сесията в понеделник, като японската валута нарасна почти 0,8% спрямо долара. В светлината на скорошната динамика за тази двойка печалбите на йената са забележителни. Доларът е на печеливша позиция от 10 март, натрупвайки около 8.5% спрямо йената до началото на днешната сесия. Спирането на галопа на „зелените пари“ е поне частично резултат от координиран ход на ФЕД и няколко други централни банки по целия свят за увеличаване на ликвидността на американската валута. Много от последните печалби от долара дойдоха от трудностите, които много международни фирми изпитваха при намирането на достатъчни количества валута за плащания, което очевидно подтикваше стойността на долара.

OIL-НЕФТ-ПЕТРОЛ успя да възстанови почти 40%

Суровият петрол успя да възстанови почти 40% от стойността си след нивото, което потъна до преди два дни при 20 долара. Това също дава малко облекчение за запасите, свързани с енергийния сектор, като Total, Eni и Shell, което е почти 10%. След силната разпродажба, наблюдавана по-рано тази седмица, цената се опитва да се възстанови и стабилизира на по-реалистични нива, което би могло да бъде устойчиво за повече играчи на пазара. Барелът вече се приближава до ключовото ниво от 28 долара, което може да ограничи възстановяването на WTI, поне засега, тъй като остава огромна доза несигурност.

ЗЛАТО-Стоките са нагоре, gold също и US$ надолу

Можем да обобщим днешната ранна търговия, като кажем, че стоките са нагоре, златото също и щатският долар надолу. Изненадващата пряка корелация между фондовите пазари и цената на кюлчетата продължава и се подпомага от забавянето на зелените пари след вчерашния рекорд.

Междувременно, технически е малко изненада да видим, че ключовото ниво на подкрепа от $ 1450 успя отново да генерира солиден отскок, потвърждавайки силата на тази подкрепа. Цената сега е изправена пред първата ключова статична устойчивост, която е поставена на $ 1520. Изкачването над това ниво би създало пространство за по-нататъшно рали.

CRUDE OIL-recover of almost 40%

Crude oil has managed to recover almost 40% of its value after the low it sunk to two days ago at $20. This is also giving a bit of relief to stocks related to energy sector, such as Total, Eni and Shell, which is up almost 10%. After the strong sell-off seen earlier this week, the price is trying to recover and stabilize at more realistic levels, which could be sustainable for more players in the market. The barrel is now approaching the key level of $28, which could curb WTI’s recovery, at least for the time being, as a huge amount of uncertainty remains.

GOLD-stocks up, gold up and the US dollar down

We can summarize today’s early trading by saying stocks up, gold up and the US dollar down. The surprising direct correlation between stock markets and the bullion price is continuing and is being helped by the greenback slowing down after yesterday’s record.

Meanwhile, technically it’s little surprise to see that the key support level of $1,450 managed to once again generate a solid rebound, confirming the strength of this support. The price now faces the first key static resistance, which is placed at $1,520. A climb above this level would create space for further rallies.

OIL coronavirus is destroying the demand side

Oil is experiencing a perfect storm in which coronavirus is destroying the demand side, while supply is overwhelmed by the deluge on offer from Saudi Arabia. As a result, the price crashed to an historic low at $20, before attempting a rebound to $23. This scenario will probably not last for long, as for both Russia and Saudi Arabia this oil war is damaging and needs to be resolved. 

Meanwhile from a technical perspective, $21.50 provides the main support with the first resistance zone is at $23.40. However, in such a volatile situation we can expect to see frequent price spikes.

FOREX

The pound is quite simply collapsing on currency markets. The U-turn of Boris Johnson’s government on the measures to be adopted for containing the coronavirus generated a new selloff on the pound. In just 72 hours the government changed its mind and closed schools, and asked people to limit all non-essential travel. Markets are pricing a likely lockdown of the country with the pound now at a 35-year low against the US dollar.

In just 10 days, the cable (GBP/USD) has fallen from 1.30 to 1.15 (see attached chart), confirming the exodus by investors from the pound. The Bank of England’s rate cut, combined with Brexit uncertainty and now the growing chance of a lockdown are hurting the British currency, with the huge volatility across markets further exacerbating its collapse. 

OIL-НЕФТ-ПЕТРОЛ

Петролът преживява перфектна буря, в която коронавирусът унищожава търсенето, докато предлагането е затрупано от потопа от Саудитска Арабия. В резултат на това цената се срина до историческото ниско ниво от $ 20, преди да се опита да отскочи до $ 23. Този сценарий вероятно няма да продължи дълго, тъй като и за Русия, и за Саудитска Арабия тази нефтена война е вредна и трябва да бъде решена.

Междувременно от техническа гледна точка, $ 21.50 осигурява основната подкрепа на първата зона на съпротива е $ 23.40. В такава нестабилна ситуация обаче можем да очакваме да наблюдаваме чести скокове на цените.

FOREX-ФОРЕКС

Паундът просто се срива на валутните пазари. Обратния завой на правителството на Борис Джонсън относно мерките, които трябва да бъдат приети за ограничаване на коронавируса, генерира нови разпродажби на лирата. Само за 72 часа правителството промени решението си и затвори училищата и помоли хората да ограничат всички несъществени пътувания. Пазарите ценообразуват вероятно блокиране на страната, като паунда сега е на 35-годишно дъно спрямо щатския долар.

Само за 10 дни кабелът (GBP / USD) падна от 1,30 на 1,15 (виж приложената диаграма), потвърждавайки изселването на инвеститорите от лирата. Намалението на лихвите на Банката на Англия, съчетано с несигурността за Brexit и сега нарастващият шанс за блокиране нанасят вреда на британската валута, като огромната нестабилност на пазарите допълнително изостря нейния срив.

GOLD-ЗЛАТО

Нестабилността остава доминиращ сценарий на пазарите, като златото не е изключение. Цената скочи до 1550 долара, преди отново да се срине под 1500 долара. В тази фаза наблюдаваме положителна (пряка) корелация между фондовите пазари и златото, което не би трябвало да е голяма изненада, тъй като всеки път, когато има рязък спад на пазара, много трейдъри използват златото като своя парична машина, за да запазят други отворени позиции, които са засегнати от недостиг на маржин.

GOLD

Volatility remains the dominant scenario on markets with gold proving no exception. The price jumped to $1,550, before collapsing again below $1,500. In this phase, we are seeing a positive (direct) correlation between stock markets and gold, which should not be a big surprise as every time there is a market sharp fall, many traders are using gold as their cash machine in order to keep other positions open that are being hit by margin calls.

Technically, there is now an important support zone at $1,450, which was the low from two days ago and also the low reached in December, while $1,467 and $1,487 are closer (but less relevant) levels to be monitored.

EUROPEAN SHARES-ЕВРОПЕЙСКИ АКЦИИ

Акциите скочиха по-високо във вторник в Европа, след положителна сесия за търговия в Азия за една нощ, тъй като трейдърите усвояват монетарните отговори от правителствата и централните банкери по света. Равновесна цена може да се види на повечето пазари, тъй като изглежда, че мечешките трендове се забавят с разликата в цената и техническите показатели. Нестабилността на пазара също е забележимо по-ниска тази седмица в сравнение с миналата седмица, но все още остава необичайно висока, докато насочеността намалява, тъй като инвеститорите все още се колебаят между „закупуването на потопа“ и ограничаването на излагането им на рискови активи. 

В световен мащаб е добра новина да видим повече стабилизиране на цените на пазарите на акции след най-лошия спад от 1987 г. Въпреки това, настоящият опит за възстановяване ще трябва да бъде подкрепен от допълнителни въздействия за постигане на печалбите. Инвеститорите приветстваха глобалния паричен отговор от централните банки, но сега очакват повече от фискалната страна, тъй като пакетите от различни икономически области са на път.

Всички европейски показатели се търгуват по-високо с най-доброто представяне на IBEX-35 в Мадрид. В момента пазарът се търгува в близост до 6200пункта, зона след отскок над 5,820пункта вчера. Цените все още са в рамките на краткосрочния им мечешки канал, но бичи разминавания между пазара и RSI индикатора може да обявят тренда за невалиден. Пазарът обаче ще трябва да изчисти 6 555пункта, за да разгърне по-нататъшен възходящ потенциал към 7000 и 7 770 пункта в краткосрочен план.

CRUDE OIL-НЕФТ-ПЕТРОЛ

Петролът продължава да се бори, тъй като инвеститорите виждат всяко възстановяване като добро време за продажба. След като цената успя да възстанови $ 30, тази сутрин отново падна, след като печалбите на фондовите пазари започнаха да се забавят. Волатилността доминира в този мечешки сценарий, като първото ниво на подкрепа е $ 28 и втората бариера, поставена на $ 28.50, докато първата значителна съпротива се намира на $ 31.50.

GOLD-ЗЛАТО

Въпреки възстановяването на европейските акции, златото не е в състояние да поддържа стабилно възстановяване и все още се търгува под 1500 долара. Вчера имахме първи опит за възстановяване, тъй като цената се възстанови силно от нивото на подкрепа от $ 1450, но основният  тренд остава непромен. Ясно е, че продажбата на злато се простира далеч над фундаменталните причини, тъй като инвеститорите все още се борят да намерят пари за покриване на маржина си или за балансиране на портфейла си на фона на тези бурни и променливи времена. Парите, а не златото, изглежда е истинският цар в този сценарий.

EUROPEAN SHARES

Shares jumped higher on Tuesday in Europe, following a positive trading session in Asia overnight as traders digest the swathe of monetary responses from governments and central bankers around the world. An equilibrium price may be in sight on most markets as bearish trends seem to be slowing down with the price and technical indicators diverging. Market volatility is also noticeably lower this week compared with last week but still remains unusually high while directionality is waning as investors still hesitate between “buying the dip” and limiting their exposure to risk assets. Globally, it is good news to see more price stabilization on share markets after the worst sell-off since 1987. However, the current recovery attempt will need to be supported by further leverages for the gains to be sustained. Investors welcomed the global monetary response from central banks but now expect more on the fiscal side as packages from different economic areas are on their way. 

All of the European benchmark are trading higher with the best performance coming from the IBEX-35 in Madrid. The market is currently trading near the 6,200pts zone following a rebound over 5,820pts yesterday. Prices are still within their short-term bearish channel but bullish divergences between the market and the RSI indicator may announce a trend invalidation to come. The market will however have to clear 6,555pts in order to unlock further bullish potential towards 7,000pts and 7,370pts on a short-term basis.

OIL

Oil continues to struggle as investors are seeing every rebound as a good time to sell. After the price managed to recover $30, it fell again this morning as gains on stock markets began to slow down. Volatility is dominating this bearish scenario, with a first support level at $28 and a second barrier placed at $28.50, while the first significant resistance is located at $31.50.

GOLD

Despite the rebound of European stocks, gold is unable to sustain any solid recovery and is still trading below $1,500. Yesterday we had a first attempt at a recovery, as the price rebounded strongly from the support level of $1,450, but the main trend remains unchanged. It is clear that the selloff of gold extends far beyond fundamental reasons as investors are still struggling to find cash for covering margin calls or rebalancing their portfolio amid these turbulent and volatile times. Cash, rather than gold, seems to be the real king in this scenario.

EUROPEAN SHARES

Shares tumbled on Monday, alongside Asian markets, despite risk assets seeing a solid rebound at the end of last week. Panic and uncertainty remain the overriding themes as investors digest the latest negative economic developments caused by Covid-19. The strong degradation of the global economic outlook took a step further as more and more retail industries shut businesses down while many European nations took the decision to close borders and confine people at home in a move to delay the spread of the deadly virus. The Federal Reserve tried to reassure investors and stabilize prices and liquidity with an historical rate cut of 1 basis point, but even that didn’t trigger any bullish price action on markets.

Despite the global response from monetary policy makers, investors now wonder what else central banks can do to mitigate the downside risk brought by coronavirus as well as put a floor on risk assets and sustain a solid recovery. European benchmarks are all trading lower with the Stoxx-600 Index sinking to its lowest since 2013 with all sectors in red territory. However, there are signs of price stabilization on bond markets, which could indicate a consolidation on European share markets this week.

GOLD

The gold price jumped up to $1,570 on today’s open, far higher than Friday’s close, before returning to $1,535. Despite the huge liquidity that the Federal Reserve is splashing into markets, bullion seems to be unable to recover, at least for the time being, after last week's sell off. We are in a scenario where investors are selling whatever they can and this has also affected gold, probably more than  it should be. The price is now dancing around the key support level of $1,530-$1,540, with large amounts of volatility. If bullion can manage to hold these levels then there is a good chance of a rebound to $1,575-$1,580.

EUROPEAN SHARES-ЕВРОПЕЙСКИ АКЦИИ

Акциите се сринаха в понеделник, наред с азиатските пазари, въпреки рисковите активи, които отбелязаха солиден спад в края на миналата седмица. Паниката и несигурността остават най-важните теми, тъй като инвеститорите усвояват последните негативни икономически последици, причинени от Covid-19. Силната деградация на глобалните икономически перспективи направи крачка напред, тъй като все повече индустрии на дребно затварят бизнеса, докато много европейски държави взеха решение да затворят границите и да ограничат хората у дома, за да забавят разпространението на смъртоносния вирус. Федералният резерв се опита да успокои инвеститорите и да стабилизира цените и ликвидността с исторически спад на 1 базова точка, но дори това предизвика бичи ценови действия на пазарите.

Избягвайки глобалния отговор от страна на създателите на парична политика, инвеститорите сега се чудят какво още могат да направят централните банки, за да смекчат риска от намаление, който носи коронавирусът, както и да поставят дъното на рисковите активи и да поддържат стабилно възстановяване. Всички европейски референтни стойности са по-ниски, като индексът Stoxx-600 потъва до най-ниското си ниво от 2013 г. насам, като всички сектори са на червена територия. Има обаче признаци на стабилизиране на цените на облигационните пазари, което може да означава консолидация на европейските пазари на акции тази седмица.