FOREX Calendar-Economic Release 04.02.2020

USD/CHF has bounced somewhat off of Friday’s lows

USD/CHF has bounced somewhat off of Friday’s lows as risk in general has rallied so far this week. The fiasco overnight in Iowa appears to be viewed as a risk-positive – given it is likely helpful to Trump -- if the overnight moves are any guide. With the risk on theme during today's Asian session USD/CHF is testing the short-term resistance coming in at 0.9680. The next levels in USD/CHF then are 0.9710 and 0.9760/70.

EUR/CHF is testing the short-term technical resistance at 1.0717, overall the down trend channel is still in play with the pivots coming in at 1.0740 and 1.0630. It will be interesting to see if the sentiment can hold up with the start in Europe very often we have seen in it the past month that the sentiment changed once Europe walked especially for EUR/CHF.

FTSE 100 започна февруари с покачване

Британските акции започнаха февруари със скромно покачване, тъй като британският паунд (GBP) рязко се обезцени на фона на притесненията за твърд Brexit. Борсовият индекс FTSE 100 се повиши с 0,55% до 7 326 пункта, докато GBP спадна с 1,56% спрямо щатския долар (USD) до $1,2990 и с 1,25% спрямо еврото (EUR) до £0,8507, тъй като премиерът Борис Джонсън заяви, че няма нужда Великобритания да следва правилата на Европейския съюз като част от бъдеща търговска сделка.

Премиерът заяви, че Уестминстър иска споразумение за свободна търговия в стил „Канада“ с ЕС, но добави, че Обединеното кралство е готово да се отдалечи от преговорите, вместо да приеме исканията на ЕС да се подпише на регламенти за единен пазар.

Говорейки в Брюксел по-рано, главният преговарящ за Brexit на ЕС Мишел Барние заяви, че блокът е готов да предложи "изключително амбициозна" търговска сделка с нулеви тарифи за стоки. "Изключителната оферта" зависи от привеждане в съответствие със стандартите на ЕС и гарантиране, че конкуренцията остава "открита и честна", каза той. Барние заяви, че трябва да има равнопоставени условия "в дългосрочен план".

По-слабият GBP има тенденция да повишава индекса FTSE100, тъй като около 70% от изграждащите го компании получават по-голямата част от приходите си от чужбина.

Wall Street rebounds to start the week

Risk sentiment appears to be recovering after positive US ISM data on Monday and continued stabilization measures by PBoC.

Wall Street rebounds to start the week. The S&P 500 advanced 0.7% on Monday, as investors presumably viewed last week's drop as a good opportunity to buy the dip. The Nasdaq (+1.3%) and Russell 2000 (+1.1%) outperformed, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) trailed its peers.

Coronavirus fears remain, but policy support from China announced on Monday and backed up again today (PBoC injected RMB 400bn via reverse repos), as well as continued efforts globally to contain the virus appear to be aiding sentiment for now.

The latest case count stands above 20.6k with 427 confirmed deaths. Hong Kong reported its first death, following a case in the Philippines on Monday but this was ignored by markets. Market based measures show a clear decline in concern.

Markets are risk‐on overnight, a 0.7% rise in S&P futures dragging USD/JPY back up toward 109 (108.82) and AUD the top performer, compounded by an RBA statement that leaves a high hurdle for further cuts.

The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 0.75%, as was widely expected. The accompanying statement erred positive on a number of fronts, provided another reminder of the long and variable lags of monetary policy, and signaled a very patient approach. Lowe gives his semi‐annual testimony to parliament on Thursday and the RBA detailed Statement on Monetary Policy is out on Friday. AUD rose, but since the beginning of the year, the trend is bearish.

Top-tier data today is limited to GBP construction PMIs, USD durable goods orders and post the NY close, NZD’s Labor Report.

FOREX Daily Pivot Points 03.02.2020

FOREX Calendar-Economic Release 03.02.2020