ЗЛАТО-Стоките са нагоре, gold също и US$ надолу

Можем да обобщим днешната ранна търговия, като кажем, че стоките са нагоре, златото също и щатският долар надолу. Изненадващата пряка корелация между фондовите пазари и цената на кюлчетата продължава и се подпомага от забавянето на зелените пари след вчерашния рекорд.

Междувременно, технически е малко изненада да видим, че ключовото ниво на подкрепа от $ 1450 успя отново да генерира солиден отскок, потвърждавайки силата на тази подкрепа. Цената сега е изправена пред първата ключова статична устойчивост, която е поставена на $ 1520. Изкачването над това ниво би създало пространство за по-нататъшно рали.

CRUDE OIL-recover of almost 40%

Crude oil has managed to recover almost 40% of its value after the low it sunk to two days ago at $20. This is also giving a bit of relief to stocks related to energy sector, such as Total, Eni and Shell, which is up almost 10%. After the strong sell-off seen earlier this week, the price is trying to recover and stabilize at more realistic levels, which could be sustainable for more players in the market. The barrel is now approaching the key level of $28, which could curb WTI’s recovery, at least for the time being, as a huge amount of uncertainty remains.

GOLD-stocks up, gold up and the US dollar down

We can summarize today’s early trading by saying stocks up, gold up and the US dollar down. The surprising direct correlation between stock markets and the bullion price is continuing and is being helped by the greenback slowing down after yesterday’s record.

Meanwhile, technically it’s little surprise to see that the key support level of $1,450 managed to once again generate a solid rebound, confirming the strength of this support. The price now faces the first key static resistance, which is placed at $1,520. A climb above this level would create space for further rallies.

OIL coronavirus is destroying the demand side

Oil is experiencing a perfect storm in which coronavirus is destroying the demand side, while supply is overwhelmed by the deluge on offer from Saudi Arabia. As a result, the price crashed to an historic low at $20, before attempting a rebound to $23. This scenario will probably not last for long, as for both Russia and Saudi Arabia this oil war is damaging and needs to be resolved. 

Meanwhile from a technical perspective, $21.50 provides the main support with the first resistance zone is at $23.40. However, in such a volatile situation we can expect to see frequent price spikes.

FOREX

The pound is quite simply collapsing on currency markets. The U-turn of Boris Johnson’s government on the measures to be adopted for containing the coronavirus generated a new selloff on the pound. In just 72 hours the government changed its mind and closed schools, and asked people to limit all non-essential travel. Markets are pricing a likely lockdown of the country with the pound now at a 35-year low against the US dollar.

In just 10 days, the cable (GBP/USD) has fallen from 1.30 to 1.15 (see attached chart), confirming the exodus by investors from the pound. The Bank of England’s rate cut, combined with Brexit uncertainty and now the growing chance of a lockdown are hurting the British currency, with the huge volatility across markets further exacerbating its collapse. 

OIL-НЕФТ-ПЕТРОЛ

Петролът преживява перфектна буря, в която коронавирусът унищожава търсенето, докато предлагането е затрупано от потопа от Саудитска Арабия. В резултат на това цената се срина до историческото ниско ниво от $ 20, преди да се опита да отскочи до $ 23. Този сценарий вероятно няма да продължи дълго, тъй като и за Русия, и за Саудитска Арабия тази нефтена война е вредна и трябва да бъде решена.

Междувременно от техническа гледна точка, $ 21.50 осигурява основната подкрепа на първата зона на съпротива е $ 23.40. В такава нестабилна ситуация обаче можем да очакваме да наблюдаваме чести скокове на цените.