FOREX- new Covid-19 cases in the US is spiking

The dollar is down against the euro, the yen and the pound during early Thursday trading, as investors await the publication of the initial jobless claim numbers in the United States with some anxiety. It is widely expected that these numbers will be extremely high, potentially the worst in many decades due to the abrupt economic slowdown caused by the measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus. At the same time the number of new Covid-19 cases in the US is spiking, further weighing the greenback down. It is interesting to note that the dollar’s weakness is occurring despite the White House and Congress having reached an agreement on an economic aid package worth $2 trillion, reinforcing the idea that during these interesting times the virus is setting the agenda, not policy makers.

EUROPEAN SHARES-The bullish mood continues in Europe

The bullish mood continues in Europe on Wednesday with shares extending this week’s advance following gains registered overnight by Asian shares. Today’s boosted market sentiment comes from Washington as investors were happy to see the White House finally confirming an agreement on the Covid-19 response bill with the Senate and pushed prices higher. Even if we are seeing much less volatility on share markets than the weeks before, the trading environment remains blurry and it’s still hard to know if the current rally will turn into a proper recovery or a simple bearish market correction. Most European benchmarks are now getting closer and closer to major resistance levels and, with no significant progress on the fight against the deadly virus, we can expect a sharp reaction when the prices challenge these zones. 

All of the European indices are in green territory today with notable gains coming from London to Madrid, which are being driven higher by the financial, industrial and basic material sectors. The Stoxx-50 Index is trading above 2,800pts as well as reversing the trend of its 55-day moving average. However, the market will still have to breach strong resistance at 2,855pts to close the bearish gap opened at the beginning of March.

OIL-Risk on remains predominant on markets

Risk-on remains predominant on markets. This is moderately helping the oil price in its attempt at a difficult recovery, as investors are still worried about the huge oversupply that is likely to remain the main topic for the next few months.  The WTI price jumped up to $25 in the first part of the week, but for the time being has been unable to continue this recovery. Despite the huge measures agreed by the US Government and the Fed, investors are waiting to see a clearer picture about coronavirus and a possible path to the end of this global problem.

GOLD-The risk-on dynamic

The gold price is slowing down after two impressive sessions of gains. The risk-on dynamic, which in the last 48 hours largely dominated the markets, is not supporting bullion price, while investors are probably switching some liquidity back to stocks. Technically we have a first support at $1,595, which is today’s low, while a clear break out above $1,630 would open space for further rallies.

FOREX-Markets reacted positively to the latest news

The pound is on the front foot against both the dollar and the euro. Sterling is benefiting from the improvement in market sentiment following several announcements of government-led rescue packages and intervention from central banks on an unprecedented scale across the globe. Markets reacted positively to the latest news of a deal being struck between the White House and Congress for an economic aid package of $2 trillion aimed at mitigating the fallout from the coronavirus crisis on the economy of the United States. Risk related assets recorded gains and the pound joined the bandwagon. The question now is, will this risk rally be sustainable or will it be diluted amidst the expected torrent of negative economic performance indicators investors will soon be presented with? Economies across the globe are showing signs of shrinking at unprecedented speeds and that realisation is likely to overshadow any positive sentiment generated by financial rescue packages and intervention.

ЕВРОПЕЙСКИ АКЦИИ-Акциите скочиха в Европа, продължавайки тренда от азиатските рейтинги

Акциите скочиха в Европа, продължавайки тренда от азиатските рейтинги, докато американските фючърси също сочат към по-твърдо отворено във вторник. Това внезапно възраждане на апетита към рискови активи дойде на фона на признаци за подобрение в някои от най-силно засегнатите региони. Наскоро континенталният Китай постигна наистина добър напредък и сега се казва, че премахва блокирането на Ухан, мястото на първото огнище на вируса, на 8 април. 

Междувременно в Европа, новият епицентър на болестта Covid-19, Италия и Германия регистрират все по-малко и по-малко нови ежедневни случаи, което показва, че драконовските мерки, предприети от правителствата, работят. Вероятността за настъпване на пик е основната информация за инвеститорите в момента, тъй като повечето от тях все още се борят с въпроса дали пазарът може да намалее или не. Много инвеститори ще се изкушат да закупят на дъното, но повечето от тях биха искали да влязат на пазара с по-голяма сигурност, отколкото сега.

Засега енергийните дялове и миньорите са най-мощният сектор в Европа и са основните участници, които определят по-високите показатели днес. Най-доброто представяне идва както от индекса DAX-30 на Франкфурт, така и от италианския FTSE-MIB с компании като Siemens, Total и ASML търговия много по-високи от вчера.

Техническата конфигурация на индекса DAX-30 е наистина интересна, тъй като пазарът може да е на прага на валидиране на обърнат модел на обръщане на главата и раменете (виж приложената диаграма), който е изграден със значителни обеми и може да види сегашния възходящ импулс натиснете цената до 10 215, 10 900 и в крайна сметка 11 600 за краткосрочна база. Въпреки това, първо трябва да се изчисти нивото на съпротивление при 9 366пункта.