OIL-WTI climbing back above $21

Oil price is attempting a difficult rebound with WTI climbing back above $21 after sinking to a 17-year-low of $19.40 yesterday evening. Rumours about talks between Putin and Trump, will include discussions on the oil price, are giving some hope to the barrel amid a backdrop of its dramatic performance YTD that shows a loss of 60% while a huge oversupply risk continues to dominate sentiment.

GOLD-volatility has slowed down

In the last few trading sessions volatility has slowed down on gold with the price consolidating just above $1,600 with stock markets also seemingly found more stability after their recent plunges. Despite this, uncertainty remains just around the corner as the impact of coronavirus on the global economy will be significant. 

The technical scenario remains unchanged as a fall below $1,590 would denote some weakness, while a clear surpass of $1,640 could open the doors for further recoveries. It will be interesting to see the reaction of gold once the risk off scenario returns to the markets, with potential space for more gains for bullion.

FOREX-Higher demand for dollars from global businesses

The dollar is recording gains against the two global safe havens of the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. One explanation offered by some is a higher demand for dollars from global businesses as the fiscal year comes to an end. However, the main reason for the greenback’s strength versus the haven currencies is the better-than-expected Chinese PMI data for March, which could indicate the return of some form of normality, just enough to lift the spirits of some investors.

EUROPEAN SHARES-World consolidating towards the tops

European shares drifted lower on Monday, despite bullish moves in before the market opened on the back of another set of stimulus moves from Asia. Market volatility isn’t as extreme as what the levels it has reached over the past few weeks but still remains unusually high. That said most indices are now getting starting to stabilize with markets around the world consolidating towards the tops of their bullish retracement reached last week amid a belief that the bottom may be behind us now. On the other hand, the deteriorating health situation continues to have a serious impact on investors’ exposure to risk assets.  Some portfolio managers think it will take a long time for the situation to get back to normal with reversal in the trend reversal expected until a vaccine is successfully created. 

The IBEX-35 from Madrid is the worst performer so far with the price trading below 6,600pts. The 34-day moving average has reversed and now plays a resistance role in a market already heading for the lower band of its short-term bullish channel. A break-out below 6,345pts could extend the current slump to 5,875pts with 5,500pts and then 5,120pts the key levels afterwards.

OIL-Markets are now betting that the crisis could be relatively long

The weakness of stock markets is adding further bearish pressure on the oil price, with the WTI benchmark again approaching the psychological threshold of $20. Markets are now betting that the crisis could be relatively long, and the barrel is the perfect asset to be shorted by traders. From a technical point of view, the price is now dancing between the significant figure of $20 and the support at $20.50, which is the bottom reached in the last few weeks. A clear fall below $20 would open space for further declines amid this massively bearish trend.

GOLD-Investors are in a “wait and see” mode

The new week has started with gold still trading around $1,615-$1,620, more or less the same value as on Friday despite a volatile start which saw the price jump above $1,635 in very early trading. The fact that the price was unable to hold above $1,630 confirms that investors are in a “wait and see” mode with the sideways movement of the last 5 days between $1,595 and $1,640 continues. For now, the huge amount of liquidity that the Fed is going to send into the markets has been unable to generate further gold rallies, but the scenario could quickly change.