FOREX-Fear is likely to once again take over and offer further support to the dollar.

The US Dollar Index, which measures the performance of the greenback versus a basket of other currencies, was pretty much flat during early Thursday trading. Recently investors had sought refuge in the dollar, with the fallout from the coronavirus creating a very risky trading environment with losses across nearly all sectors. Today however that move towards the dollar is on hold, with all eyes and ears on the US jobless claims due to be published later. Should the numbers mark an improvement on the record 3.3 million new claims released last week, we will probably see a growth in risk appetite which, in the current context, could incite greenback losses. On the other hand, if the new jobless claims number is within last week’s ballpark, fear is likely to once again take over and offer further support to the dollar.

GOLD-challenging the psychological threshold of $1,600

The gold price fell yesterday as low as $1,570, breaking down the first support level of $1,590 in the process, on growing fears that central banks will buy much less gold and other precious metals in the next few years. Despite this quick descent and despite the strength of greenback seen in the last few hours, bullion has managed to recover and is once again challenging the psychological threshold of $1,600, in a situation which remains volatile and dominated by uncertainty. In the next few hours bullion will be called to hold on around $1,590-$1,595 with any failure to do so confirming the weakness seen yesterday.

FOREX-Many investors are flocking to the greenback

The dollar is strengthening versus a basket of other major currencies, with the Dollar Index gaining just over 0.5% during the early part of Wednesday’s session. Many investors are flocking to the greenback due to its safe haven status as bleak data continues to gather and point towards an unprecedented contraction for the world’s economy. It is interesting to note this dollar strength comes barely a day after the Fed announced robust liquidity measures in response to the surge in demand for the currency and illustrates the scale of the global appetite for greenbacks.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Stocks rose in Europe

Stocks rose in Europe on Tuesday, following a mixed trading session in Asia despite reassuring data from China overnight. Stock markets around the world have extended their very-short-term rally with investors’ appetite towards risky assets revived amid signs of stabilization in the number of coronavirus cases in some of the worst affected countries in Europe. Italy reported its lowest number of daily new cases in weeks while the data also seems to be trending lower in Germany as well as in Spain. However, even if the current rally limits losses as we head into Q2, the outlook remains bearish for Europe. First, it is far from certain that the bottom of the market is definitely behind us. Secondly, even if it is, investors around the world are highly likely to soon start pricing in the negative impacts of such massive monetary adjustments from central banks. This situation is especially true in Europe where the ECB is likely to get out of the crisis with record levels of debt, which will certainly impact on the robustness of the EU bloc. 

The Stoxx-50 Index is trading higher today, above 2800pts, led by travel and leisure shares. The German DAX-30 Index is today’s best performer with the market challenging the upper band of its consolidation zone, a clearing of which could drive prices higher still towards 10,200pts and 10,435pts by extension. Both the MACD indicator and the 55-day moving average are giving bullish signals, however, another failure to break through the ceiling at 10,065pts could lead prices down to support levels at first 9,970pts and then 9,815pts.

OIL-WTI climbing back above $21

Oil price is attempting a difficult rebound with WTI climbing back above $21 after sinking to a 17-year-low of $19.40 yesterday evening. Rumours about talks between Putin and Trump, will include discussions on the oil price, are giving some hope to the barrel amid a backdrop of its dramatic performance YTD that shows a loss of 60% while a huge oversupply risk continues to dominate sentiment.

GOLD-volatility has slowed down

In the last few trading sessions volatility has slowed down on gold with the price consolidating just above $1,600 with stock markets also seemingly found more stability after their recent plunges. Despite this, uncertainty remains just around the corner as the impact of coronavirus on the global economy will be significant. 

The technical scenario remains unchanged as a fall below $1,590 would denote some weakness, while a clear surpass of $1,640 could open the doors for further recoveries. It will be interesting to see the reaction of gold once the risk off scenario returns to the markets, with potential space for more gains for bullion.