OIL-Cut of 9.7 million barrels per day

Despite the world’s oil producers agreeing to a massive cut of 9.7 million barrels per day, the oil price was unable to hold onto its initial gains as investors are still expecting there to be a global oversupply for the next few months. After a positive gap when markets opened, WTI has fallen again below $23, confirming the bearish trend seen in the first few months of 2020. Almost 70% of the recovery seen after Donald Trump’s tweet about the possibility of an agreement has been lost, confirming the maxim of “buy the rumour, sell the fact”. On a separate note, it is worth noting that Brent is once again performing better than WTI, with a growing spread between the two benchmarks.

FOREX-Investors aren’t entirely satisfied

On a Monday marked by lower than usual trading activity, due to the holiday in Britain, Hong Kong and Australia, the focus so far has been on the performance of currencies of oil exporting countries, such as Canada, Mexico and Norway, all of which are recording losses against the US dollar. It appears that investors aren’t entirely satisfied by the compromise reached between OPEC and other major oil producers on Sunday. The agreement to a record cut in oil output failed to reassure the markets, with the prevailing sentiment being one of aversion to risk due to fears that the newly reduced production quotas will fail to offset the damage inflicted by the drop in demand caused by the coronavirus crisis. This scenario is punishing not only to the oil price but also to the value of oil producing countries’ currencies versus the dollar.

Gold is shining with the spot price closing in on its 7-year-high at $1,700

Gold is shining with the spot price closing in on its 7-year-high at $1,700. Bullion rallied after the announcement of the Federal Reserve’s new coronavirus stimulus. Another $2.3 trillion of lending will be in the system to soften the impact of the pandemic emergency. As mentioned in previous comments, markets are understanding and pricing in every day that central banks will be forced to create a huge amount of new liquidity. The amount of cash in circulation is growing much quicker than the gold, which of course cannot be printed. Gold production is increasing the amount of gold in circulation by less than 2% per year, while the monetary mass is dramatically increasing week by week to mitigate against the impact of the virus.

FOREX-Royal Bank of Australia decided to keep rates on hold

It has been a good week for the Australian dollar, gaining more than 5% to the US dollar since the opening of the market on Monday. The Aussie’s vitality comes from all the stars aligning in support of the currency. On Monday the Royal Bank of Australia decided to keep rates on hold at a time when other central banks are cutting while the recovery in oil prices also helped as the Australian dollar’s performance is closely linked to that of commodities in general. Finally, the improvement in market sentiment, with investors glass half-full stance is also offering support to the risk-related Aussie following signs that the number of coronavirus infections is declining in Europe and the US, the current epicentres of the disease, as well as the reopening of Wuhan for business after three months of quarantine.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Мarket is being pushed

Shares are trading higher in Europe on Thursday despite a shy market open and modest rises overnight by most Asian stocks. The appetite towards riskier assets seems to be back on track on what’s set to be a busy day before the Easter weekend. Even if uncertainty remains on the timeframe for economies to re-open and on how hard it will be for them to recover, investors seem to be willing to extend this week’s rally with fresh highs likely today. Volatility is also likely to be on the rise today as many market participants will be cautiously monitoring a batch of important data releases coming from both Europe and the US. 

The Stoxx-50 Index is approaching strong technical resistance levels and the fact that the current short-term bullish trend is slowing down as the market nears these levels is a cause for concern. Although markets may still initially climb higher, the temptation for investors will be to take their profits and reduce their exposure to risk markets, as long as there doesn’t seem to be any significant improvements in the struggle against the pandemic.

Currently, the market is being pushed by financial and discretionary consumer shares with companies like BNP Paribas, ING, Adidas and Daimler among the largest movers. The DAX-30 of Frankfurt is the best performer in the eurozone with the market trading close to 10,600pts. Technically, the market has opened the way for an extended rally towards the gap between 11,000pts and11,540pts zone after the prices cleared its last Speedline. However, the MACD indicator also shows a trend slowdown with a bearish divergence and this should be taken seriously as the DAX, like the Stoxx-50, is also approaching strong technical levels.

OIL- Investors are in a wait and see mode

After yesterday’s oil price rally, investors are in a wait and see mode as the OPEC+’s key virtual meeting approaches. It will be crucial for the group to reach a quick agreement to mitigate against the worst-case scenario of an enduring global glut, which was the result of the failure of the previous OPEC agreement. Technically, the WTI price is moving laterally after the huge spike of volatility seen last Friday and earlier this week. A first positive signal will arrive with a clear climb above $27, even if the technical scenario is secondary today with the news from OPEC+ the real market driver.