OIL-The oil war combined with the devastating effect of the coronavirus

The oil war combined with the devastating effect of the coronavirus-induced lockdown on economies has triggered a dramatic fall in the price of oil with WTI plunging to its lowest level in more than 20 years with the May contract sinking below $15. On top of that, there is a wide contango across contracts, demonstrating both the huge oversupply currently as well expectations that some of this surplus will reduce in coming months as the producers’ cuts start to take effect and the peak of the global lockdown passes. 

This huge contango and wide difference between the prices of various futures contracts are making it very complicated to put long-term trading strategies together as it remains expensive to keep positions open for any length of time, due to the enormous contango effect.

BOND-Crucial week for European bond markets

This is a crucial week for European bond markets, with the EU called upon to find a solution for a recovery fund as well as other solutions to help countries endure this acute economic crisis caused by the coronavirus. Overall there is uncertainty about bonds markets with the potential for the number of companies struggling to repay their debts to grow sharply over the next few months.

A cash crisis in some sectors, such as airlines and restaurants, is almost inevitable due to the lack of income in March and April and it will be crucial to see if there are any effects on bond markets as a result. Investors will be more cautious before lending money to the companies in the worst affected sectors. 

These extreme times present a scenario in which on the one hand central banks are injecting liquidity to markets, while on the other hand, the increased risk to lending would normally see interest rates rise. So far investors have kept their faith in central banks, both in the EU and in the US, but it will be crucial that markets retain their confidence in the next few weeks.

FOREX-Failing to prepare an adequate response to the coronavirus crisis

The pound is down versus other major currencies at the start of the European session on Monday. Sterling’s losses to the euro and the dollar, of 0.35% and 0.25% respectively, come at a time of heightened political tension in the UK as the government is accused of failing to prepare an adequate response to the coronavirus crisis, with the spotlight pointing at Boris Johnson. Michael Gove, one of the highest profile cabinet members, confirmed the Prime Minister failed to attend five emergency meetings in the run-up to the acute phase of the pandemic. Also worrying investors is the fact that, unlike several other countries, the UK authorities haven’t given any indication of having a lockdown exit strategy at a time when the burden of the country’s economic paralysis starts to weigh heavily on market sentiment.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Stocks in Europe opened higher on Friday

Stocks in Europe opened higher on Friday, extending gains from Asian shares as investors remain optimistic ahead of the weekend. The risk-on mood is holding sway despite yesterday’s negative US unemployment figures as well as last night’s disappointing GDP release from China, which led to increased volatility. This optimistic wind has been triggered after President Trump outlined a structured plan, welcomed by investors, regarding the re-opening of the US economy. Investors particularly liked the fact the country will reopen in stages, in a state by state manner, instead of ending lockdowns measures everywhere at the same time as this is seen as the best way to get the economy back to normal and avoid the likelihood of a second peak of COVID-19. However, this risk-on trading stance remains fragile and strongly depends on each day’s news with corporate earnings likely to play a big role in determining sentiment. The earning season continues with more large European companies publishing their Q1 results next week with investors still struggling to evaluate the hit of the virus crisis to corporate results. As a result, this could lead to profit-taking moves before today’s closing bell. 

The DAX-30 Index of Frankfurt is the best performer so far after the market opened with a solid 200-point bullish gap this morning. The 21-day moving average is going up, acting as a support for the price in the process, while the RSI indicator is showing significant bullish pressure with room to progress further. The market is now trading above 10,600pts and is likely to head towards the 10,790pts-10,880pts zone today (50% Fibonacci) but bearish corrections may take place below that level ahead of the weekend.

OIL-Oil remains in a bearish phase with the WTI price falling to a 18-year low

Oil remains in a bearish phase with the WTI price falling to a 18-year low. The spread between WTI and Brent is also widening with Brent proving to be much more resilient currently. This is a clear indicator of how much this oil crisis directly affects the United States and their producers, with the shale oil sector likely to be one of the casualties from the huge oversupply.

FOREX- European trading warms up on Friday

The pound is down versus all other major currencies as European trading warms up on Friday. Despite the slight drift in market sentiment towards a greater appetite for risk, sterling appears to have missed that train, on concerns about the country’s economic prospects. Yesterday the UK government extended the lockdown for another three weeks, as the coronavirus infection and fatality rates haven’t yet reached their peak while the Office for Budget Responsibility warned of a drop in GDP in the order of 35% during the second quarter of 2020. Then there is the ‘small matter’ of Brexit which, with time running out, is still there to be dealt with. All in all, today’s drop may just be the forerunner to more testing times ahead for the pound.