FOREX-Investors don’t seem to believe the UK will walk away from negotiations

The pound is almost flat against both the dollar and the euro during early Thursday trading. Today brings the UK’s self-imposed deadline for a post-Brexit agreement to be reached with the EU but despite no such deal being in place and a prevailing risk-off sentiment in the markets, investors don’t seem to believe the UK will walk away from negotiations empty handed. This could be because, faced with a battered economy, climbing COVID-infection numbers and an increasingly tense domestic political environment, the last thing Boris Johnson’s government needs is another fire to extinguish.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Market sentiment remains hesitant

European markets had a mixed opening mixed on Wednesday after most benchmarks hit major support levels after yesterday’s downside moves. Market sentiment remains hesitant as most investors now seek further bullish catalysts before taking prices higher. Surprisingly, the FTSE-100 Index is one of today’s best performers with the index trading higher and evolving inside an encouraging technical configuration. The difficult negotiations between Boris Johnson and EU officials on the Brexit deal, and more specifically on fishing rights, had a significant negative impact on Sterling. However, this has also made the large companies of the FTSE-100 Index more competitive than ever on international markets and this has helped sustain investors ‘appetite.

From a technical point of view, the index is still trading inside a bearish flag pattern, challenging the 6,000pts level close to the upper band. However, the market hasn’t registered any new market low since its double rebound over 5,800pts while the Relative Strength Indicator has already broken-out of its bearish trendline as well as the key 50% level to tip the index into buy territory. Even if this is seen as a bullish situation, the price will have to clear the 6,080-6,120pts zone to unlock an extended bullish potential at first 6,170pts, then 6,300pts, then 6,420pts and ultimately 6,510pts. On the downside, the first available support is at 5,950pts on a short-term basis.

GOLD- Challenge the psychological threshold of $2,000.

The greenback’s recovery has curbed gold’s rebound. In fact, gold’s decline was even steeper proportionally than the dollar’s recovery, highlighting the difficulties bullion to climb above and even to hold onto the key level of $1,920. This area, firstly reached in 2011 and for almost a decade the record high for gold, is now the first real resistance for bullion. Moreover, we can also see that at $1,880-$1,885 buyers started to react and pulled the spot price back up to $1,890-$1,900. This is important as bullion, at least for the time being, didn’t fall to $1,850-$1,860, which is a major support to monitor. In other words, we are still in a wide lateral phase, in the trading range between $1,850 and $2,070. Bullion will need to break through $1,920 to have the chance to once again challenge the psychological threshold of $2,000.

FOREX- Demand for dollar-denominated assets increases

A series of medical setbacks in the fight against COVID is hindering risk appetite resulting in the continuation of dollar gains against the other major currencies for the second day in row. In a pattern observed since the beginning of the pandemic, demand for dollar-denominated assets increases whenever fear drives investors away from riskier instruments. However, the greenback’s gains are to some extent subdued and counterbalanced by optimism about the release of an economic stimulus package and the outcome of the American presidential election, with polls indicating an increasing likelihood of a Joe Biden victory by a clear margin, avoiding the nightmare scenario of a disputed result.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Investors may choose to temper their exposure

Shares drifted lower at the beginning of the European trading session on Tuesday as market sentiment remains weighed down by increasing uncertainty, despite encouraging Chinese data overnight. Investors’ risk appetite is on hold today following delays and difficulties in the development of a vaccine from Johnson & Johnson, while infection numbers keep on increasing everywhere. In addition, stock traders are becoming ever more disappointed by the failure of the US administration to deliver a new deal on further stimulus measures and must deal with the uncertainty of the upcoming presidential election. Having said that, and after yesterday’s rally on techs, many investors may choose to temper their exposure to stay on the “safe side” ahead of the earning season and its usual higher market volatility. With this in mind, investors’ attention will be focused on the financial sector with Citigroup, JPM and Blackrock all publishing their results today. There is unlikely to be any significant sell-off today as tech stocks are likely to offset any losses in the travel and leisure sector triggered by vaccine delays.

OIL-Investors are waiting for oil industry reports

The countdown to the US election is drawing into sharper focus and as the odds of a Biden victory increase (implied probability went up from 65 to 69.2% over the weekend), investors are betting on the likeliest scenarios for oil in the next few years. A Biden victory could see less support for the shale oil industry, pulling up the oil price as a result. Vice versa, if Trump manages to defeat forecasts, shale oil would probably benefit from the tycoon’s help. Despite this, Trump could be supportive for the barrel through any potential new stimulus, which could boost (or drug?) the economy further.

From a technical point of view, WTI remains just below $40, after the price slipped yesterday. Investors are waiting for oil industry reports due out today to provide new directionality to the price.