FOREX-Who gets to be the next US president

With one week to go until the US Presidential election, there is a sense of calm in the markets. All major currencies are almost flat as the bulk of investors now await the closing of the polling stations late on November 3. This election carries perhaps more weight than previous ones; facing a global pandemic, growing friction with China and increasing social polarisation, the choice of who gets to be the next US president could be a crucial moment in history whose impact will be felt across several market-sensitive areas, such as the stimulus package, trade wars and even Brexit on the other side of the Atlantic. So, unless something very substantial occurs between now and November 3, we should expect lower than usual volatility until the polling stations close.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Next US stimulus package

European stocks plunged alongside the S&P 500 at the beginning of Monday’s trading session, amid rising virus worries over the weekend. Most investors want to remain optimistic about the upside potential of stock markets but they are becoming increasingly sceptical about the next US stimulus package. In addition, recent record-breaking infection levels in many hotspots has led the EU to implement tougher restrictions (nationwide curfew in Spain, toughest Italian measures since May) which are widely expected to hurt businesses. Risk appetite has then significantly decreased today, with many investors seeking haven assets like bond markets and the US Dollar. Having said that, this week is likely to be a volatile one with a slew of major macro events. The Chinese Communist Party plenum runs until the 29th, both the ECB and BoJ have monetary meetings, US Q3 GDP figures are due on Thursday while intense Brexit negotiations continue to serve as a noisy backdrop. On the corporate front, reports from Coface, Bigben Interactive, Europcar Mobility, Twilio and Google are likely to increase market volatility during the day.

FOREX-New COVID infections reached new records on both sides

The Dollar Index is rising while risk-related assets are on the backfoot during early Monday trading. The week is starting under the spell of risk aversion as the number of new COVID infections reached new records on both sides of the Atlantic during the weekend, heightening fears over new lockdowns and the economic devastation they cause. At the same time, in Washington, Republican and Democrat lawmakers remain unable to reach an agreement over the size and shape of a much-needed economic stimulus package. It is not surprising that as the second wave of the pandemic engulfs Europe and politicians in the United States continue to squabble, investors look for the comfort of safe haven assets like the dollar.

EUROPEAN SHARES-US House of Representative speaker Nancy Pelosi kept driving stock prices higher

Stocks edged higher on Friday in Europe as a fresh boost was given to market sentiment following encouraging macro data. In addition to the reassuring key manufacturing data, investors also welcomed the last batch of positive earnings from carmakers as well as the banking sector, both respectively boosted by Daimler AG and Barclays PLC. On the other side of the Atlantic, US House of Representative speaker Nancy Pelosi kept driving stock prices higher by suggesting the stimulus deal was getting closer and would likely be reached before the presidential election. The last presidential debate on Thursday brought a very different tone in the exchange between the two candidates, than from the previous exchange. Polls from CNN suggest Biden prevailed in this debate as the candidate could lay down policies regarding Coronavirus, immigration and international relationships. Earnings reports continue to be central in investors’ minds this week, and many will eagerly await results from American Express in the US later today, as well as data from Renault, Air Liquide, Faurecia, Klepierre, Nanobiotix and other European companies.

GOLD-Consolidating just above the threshold of $1,900

Gold spot price is consolidating just above the threshold of $1,900. After an unsuccessful attack to $1,930, the price collapsed below $1,900, but buyers were ready to sustain bullion.

Prices are moving in a relatively tight lateral trading range between $1,880 and $1,930, while yesterday’s decline was curbed at around $1,894 - well above the lower edge of this channel.

From a technical point of view, prices rebounded on the dynamic support that we can obtain drawing together the recent series of lows shown by gold. This is confirming a moderate positive set for the gold price, and a clear break out of $1,930 would be required for any further bullish rally.

FOREX-Debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump

The dollar is losing some ground to other major currencies during early Friday trading, following last night’s debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Lately, the greenback has been seen as a barometer of investors sentiment, rising at times of uncertainty and dropping when optimism prevails. Interesting therefore that after the final debate between the two presidential candidates ended in a stalemate, which is more positive for the poll leading Democrat candidate, the dollar index failed to signal any sentiment of alarmism in the markets, underscoring the idea that largely investors now see a Biden victory by an undisputable margin as the most benign election outcome.