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EUROPEAN SHARES-Investor sentiment is now being weighed down by tougher restrictions

European shares drifted significantly lower on Thursday, following the trend started at the end of the US trading session yesterday as investors switched to risk-off. The market euphoria of the past week is fading away as investor sentiment is now being weighed down by tougher restrictions, offsetting vaccine progress in many areas. Even if the long-term recovery isn’t really threatened yet, most investors expect a market correction due to mounting risk to economies from a very short-term perspective. Having said that, a bearish short-term correction would still be technically “healthy” for stocks as it would temper the powerful rally registered in November. Today’s session is likely to remain volatile as investors will keep their focus on major macro data (initial Jobless claims and existing home sales) as well as the EU summit. The Stoxx-50 Index has recently broken-out of a bearish rising wedge and can now find significant support at first 3,440pts, then 3,400pts and ultimately at 3,355pts.

GOLD-Increased percentage success of Pfizer’s vaccine

In the last few days a stream of positive updates about vaccines have pulled up stocks. The general risk on scenario hit the gold price, triggering a notable decline last week. Yesterday, bullion dropped a further 1% on the news of the increased percentage success of Pfizer’s vaccine. So far the price has managed to remain in the lateral trading range of the last few months between $1,850 and $2,070. We are just a few dollars above the lower edge of this channel and a fall below this mark would be seen as a negative signal. Investors, anyway, should not forget the strong dovish activity of central banks, which will last for a long time and are likely to be supportive for the yellow metal.

 

FOREX-Political tug-of-war between Brussels and a Polish-Hungarian coalition

After several days dominated by a vaccine-related optimism, which offered support to the euro, headwinds are now challenging the buoyancy of the single currency, causing losses versus other major currencies. The immediate reality presents record numbers of new infections and fatalities in several European countries, reminding investors that the return to normality still remains on the distant horizon. The second wave of the pandemic will surely add to the economic woes of the continent, particularly as any stimulus package continues to be blocked by a political tug-of-war between Brussels and a Polish-Hungarian coalition.

EUROPEAN SHARES-Investors were also glad to see President-Elect Joe Biden’s adviser oppose a national US lockdow

Stocks traded higher, from Tokyo shares to US futures contracts, buoyed by rising risk appetite from investors at the beginning of the week. While last week’s vaccine announcement renewed bullish sentiment on most stock markets, another boost has been given over the weekend with the signing of the Asian trade deal on Sunday. Of course, investors welcomed the news as this trade agreement will involve some of the world’s biggest economies and most densely populated areas in the globe, but that’s not all. Investors were also glad to see President-Elect Joe Biden’s adviser oppose a national US lockdown, despite surging virus cases. This announcement has been well received by most traders as it allows them to keep their eyes on the reopening of economies and, more generally, the end of the crisis. This bullish trading stance is likely to remain for a while yet as investors welcome reassuring macro data from China, Europe and the US. However, short-term price action sparked by rising volatility may still occur in Europe as Brexit talks get more fraught as we step ever closer to the latest deadline.