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FOREX-Pulse of the Market

The U.S dollar hovered near a two-week low against a basket of currencies yesterday, as profit-taking and weakness in U.S. yields exerted pressure. Market participants were hesitant to place big directional bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes later in the day, and the dollar traded little changed against most of the majors. The U.S Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was 0.101% lower at 92.213. The dollar has appreciated this year along with Treasury yields as investors bet the United States would recover more quickly from the COVID-19 pandemic than other developed nations. But the dollar index’s 2.5% gain in March, the biggest monthly increase since the end of 2016, prompted some traders to book profits. The weakness in Treasury yields after their rapid rally this year also added pressure on the dollar. All of this has left investors wondering if the dollar weakness, which sent the currency to a near 3-year low earlier this year, may be set to resume. Upbeat European data yesterday showing euro zone business activity bounced back to growth last month, also supported the common currency against the greenback. Investors will be scanning the minutes in search of any ‘discomfort’ among policymakers about rising inflation prospects and in parallel any hint that the discussion is migrating towards defining a timeline for tapering asset purchases. Euro zone business activity bounced back to growth last month, underpinned by a record expansion in manufacturing, according to a survey yesterday that also showed the service industry was coping better than expected with new lockdowns. Europe is battling a third wave of coronavirus infections and governments - also struggling with vaccine programs beset by delays - have re-imposed curbs on citizens and forced swathes of the dominant services industry to remain closed. But IHS Markit’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.6 in March from February’s 45.7, much higher than a flash estimate of 48.8 and only just shy of the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. Despite the health situation remaining fragile and some restrictions being extended, optimism about the vaccine campaigns sends some hopes for the services sector outlook. A composite PMI, combining manufacturing and services and seen as a good gauge of economic health, rose to 53.2 from 48.8, above the 52.5 preliminary estimate. The Canadian dollar fell yesterday, hurt by a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.

Euro

The single currency traded higher yesterday as Euro zone business activity bounced back to growth last month, underpinned by a record expansion in manufacturing, according to a survey that also showed the service industry was coping better than expected with new lockdowns. IHS Markit’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.6 in March. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1859 and a high of 1.1913 before closing the day around 1.1865 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded higher as profit-taking in the U.S Dollar and weakness in U.S yields exerted pressure. Market participants were hesitant to place big directional bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes later in the day, and the dollar traded little-changed against most of the majors. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.55 and a high of 109.92 before closing the day around 109.82 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound sank as profit-taking by traders after a strong first quarter for the British currency pulled it to its lowest in over four weeks against the euro and a week’s low against the dollar. Expectations of an economic rebound in Britain, spurred by rapid COVID-19 vaccinations, helped sterling to record its best quarter since 2015 versus the euro. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3722 and a high of 1.3837 before closing the day at 1.3735 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened to a one-week low as commodity-linked currencies broadly lost ground and domestic data showed the trade surplus narrowing in February. Canada's trade surplus with the world narrowed in February to C$1 billion as a global shortage of semiconductor chips hit both imports and exports. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2560 and a high of 1.2632 before closing the day at 1.2606 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar began yesterday's session under pressure after overnight activity and this theme has largely continued through the day as well. Both the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell about 0.7%, giving back some recent gains. Like Canada, Australia and New Zealand are major commodity exporters. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7598 and a high of 0.7675 before closing the day at 0.7612 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 60 and lies above the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.05%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 reading and lies above the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.54%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bullish tone and MACD is also indicating a bullish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 51 reading and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.57%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 56 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.58%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.75%.

Sources: News, Charts & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters, US Department Of Treasury)

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

Daily Market View-U.S Stock Market

Major averages hovered near unchanged yesterday, with the S&P closing up slightly after the Federal Reserve released minutes from its most recent meeting that reinforced the U.S central bank’s position to remain patient before raising rates. The major indexes held near unchanged for most of the day but the S&P 500 briefly climbed to a session high after the minutes, in which Fed officials said it would likely take “some time” for substantial further progress on goals of maximum employment and stable prices. But the gains were minor and short-lived, as many market participants question the ability to hold off on a rate hike for as long as the Fed has stated. The Fed has been more transparent all of this year about where they stand and they really are not budging from that stance. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note moved higher late in the session. Still, it remained below a 14-month high of 1.776% hit on March 30. The recent pullback in yields has helped growth names and lifted technology and communication services stocks on the day.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

 The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.05%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were JPMorgan Chase & Co, which rose 1.57% or 2.39 points to trade at 154.93 at the close. Apple Inc. added 1.34% or 1.69 points to end at 127.90 and Intel Corporation was up 1.04% or 0.68 points to 66.24 in late trade. Biggest losers included Walt Disney Company, which lost 1.15% or 2.18 points to trade at 187.55 in late trade. Boeing Co declined 1.03% or 2.62 points to end at 252.55 and Dow Inc. shed 0.91% or 0.59 points to 64.01.

NASDAQ 100 

The NASDAQ index declined 0.07%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Bonso Electronics International Inc. which rose 45.06% to 9.945, Recon Technology Ltd which was up 19.11% to settle at 6.670 and Seelos Therapeutics Inc. which gained 17.78% to close at 5.830. The worst performers were FibroGen Inc. which was down 43.07% to 19.72 in late trade, Homology Medicines Inc. which lost 22.80% to settle at 7.18 and Kelly Services B Inc. which was down 15.67% to 32.89 at the close.

Oil

Crude prices fell today after official data showed a big increase in U.S gasoline stocks, sparking concerns about demand weakening in the world’s biggest oil consumer as crude supplies around the world rise. U.S oil fell 53 cents, or 0.9%, to $59.24 a barrel. While crude oil stocks in the United States fell more than forecast by analysts, gasoline inventories jumped sharply, also against expectations, the U.S Department of Energy said yesterday. Oil inventories dropped by 3.5 million barrels last week to nearly 502 million barrels, and gasoline stocks increased by 4 million barrels, against expectations of a decline, to just over 230 million barrels, as refiners ramped up production before the summer driving season. Refiners may want to pull back on the run rate a bit to keep gasoline storage from challenging the all-time record. At the same time, supply is rising across the world with Russian output increasing from average March levels in the first few days of April. Iran may see some sanctions lifted and add to global supplies.

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices steadied after early falls today, as market participants weighed the U.S Federal Reserve's commitment to keep interest rates low for some time against likely higher inflation. Spot gold was flat at $1,737.89 per ounce. U.S gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,739.20 per ounce. Fed officials are committed to supporting the economy until its recovery is more secure, minutes of the U.S. central bank's most recent policy meeting released yesterday showed. The Fed was very assuring about its stand on interest rates, although investors are not convinced. Investors are expecting the Fed will have to hike interest rates as early as January 2022 as it becomes a huge task once inflation starts going out of control. Several policymakers at the Fed's March 16-17 meeting indicated they thought interest rates might need to increase sooner than anticipated by the bulk of their colleagues, and perhaps as soon as next year, the minutes showed. Non-yielding gold tends to fall out of favor when interest rates rise, as it increases the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Recent economic data have indicated a faster turnaround from the pandemic impacts and boosted risk assets. U.S stock futures nudged higher to hit a record today, weighing on gold's safe-haven appeal. In the near term, gold has support at $1,727 and $1,720 levels, followed by $1,705. SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.35 tonne to 1,028.69 tonnes on Wednesday. Lending support to gold, the U.S dollar tracked Treasury yields lower and traded near a more than two-week low versus major peers today. Among other metals, silver fell 0.1% to $25.09 per ounce and palladium was down 0.3% to $2,614.98. Platinum rose 0.6% to $1,232.99.

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat futures gained yesterday, following the Minneapolis Grain Exchange’s hard red spring wheat higher on concerns that dryness across the U.S Great Plains could affect spring wheat plantings. Corn gained ahead of the U.S Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand report on Friday, which is expected to show strong exports further drawing down corn stockpiles. Soybeans slid as the South American harvest progressed.

Source: - News & Quotes (Courtesy: Reuters)

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

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