The whisper number for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report is a million jobs

The U.S dollar ended the day sharply higher against all of the major currencies but not before wild swings that took USD/JPY below 109.00 and then back above 109.50. EUR/USD soared to 1.1900 at the start of the NY open but plunged towards an intraday low of 1.1836 before the London close. We haven’t seen big intraday reversals like this in a while and the culprit was non-farm payrolls confusion. Private payroll provider ADP reported significantly slower job growth in the month of July that sent the dollar tumbling lower but when non-manufacturing ISM was released, investors were relieved to see service-sector job growth.

After contracting the previous month, the employment component of non-manufacturing ISM rose to 53.8 from 49.3. The PMI index rose to 64 from 60.1, a new record high that sent the dollar soaring higher. The whisper number for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report is a million jobs. The market had a violent reaction to both reports because the outcome will have a significant impact on how the U.S. dollar trades for the next few weeks leading into the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole summit. If the data is good, the dollar will soar on the prospect of a taper announcement later this month. 

However, if payroll disappoints, the dollar will slide as investors push their expectations for the taper to September or later. Fed President Clarida said that he can certainly see the Fed announcing a taper this year if conditions for substantial progress are met. The impact of FX policy divergences on currencies is growing. Calls by local banks for a series of interest rate hikes in New Zealand drove the New Zealand dollar to its strongest level in nearly a month before U.S. dollar strength stripped away the gains.

Still, NZD was the only major currency to end the day higher versus the USD. The European Central Bank’s dovishness sent the euro tumbling against most of the major currencies. Of course, it didn’t help that Eurozone retail sales rose less than expected and the Composite and Services PMI indices were revised lower. Looking ahead, the main focus today will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy announcement. Like the Fed, U.K policymakers believe that inflation increases are transitory.

Euro

The single currency traded higher as Eurozone business activity roared in July, expanding at its fastest pace in 15 years, as the lifting of more coronavirus restrictions and an accelerated vaccine drive injected life into the bloc's dominant service industry, a survey showed. IHS Markit's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) climbed to 60.2 last month. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1852 and a high of 1.1892 before closing the day around 1.1862 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen steadied as the dollar recovered quickly from a fall when comments from a top U.S Federal Reserve official appeared to suggest that the central bank may reduce support for the improving economy more quickly than widely thought. The official's bullish comments on the U.S economy triggered a rebound in U.S Treasury yields. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 108.85 and a high of 109.32 before closing the day around 109.02 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound steadied around $1.39 against the dollar yesterday, buoyed by risk sentiment in markets, optimism over the outlook for COVID-19 in Britain and some anticipation of a hawkish turn from the Bank of England when it meets on Thursday. Britain’s pound has rebounded after most lockdown measures in England were dropped on July 19. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3878 and a high of 1.3936 before closing the day at 1.3914 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart yesterday along with a two-week low for oil prices, but the currency stuck to a narrow range ahead of key economic data through the rest of the week. The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 3.4% lower at $68.15 a barrel, pressured by a surprise build in U.S stocks. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2486 and a high of 1.2573 before closing the day at 1.2535 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar initially rallied during the trading session as we continue to see hope slip back into the markets. Having said that, we have also given back some of the gains above the 0.74 level, so it does suggest that perhaps we may have a bit of ugliness ahead of us. If that is going to be the case, then the Aussie dollar will be one of the first currencies that people sell. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7408 and a high of 0.7485 before closing the day at 0.7421 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.29%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.02%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.20%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.27%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.08%.

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

Glimpse of the potential seasonal impact

The first week of August will be a busy one for the financial markets. Employment reports are due for release from the U.S, Canada and New Zealand along with central bank meetings in Australia and the U.K August is traditionally a challenging month for stocks and today we got a glimpse of the potential seasonal impact. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high at the start of the NY trade but gave up all its gains by the end of the day. U.S data was weaker than expected with the ISM manufacturing index sinking to 59.5 from 60.6. Economists predicted a pickup in manufacturing activity but shortages of raw materials and shift in spending to services caused activity to slow. Overall the number is still strong, particularly given the sharp rise in the unemployment index but that did not stop the U.S dollar from following Treasury yields lower. The big story today was the plunge in yields – at one point 10-year rates were down 5 percent. The Australian dollar was one of the best performers on Monday but most Australian banks are calling for the RBA to renege on its plan to taper bond purchases from September forward. The initial announcement to taper bond buys was made on July 5th. At the time Melbourne was coming out of a lockdown and Sydney just went into what was supposed to be a 2 week long snap lockdown. Darwin, Perth and Brisbane also tightened restrictions which meant that more than 12 million Australians were in lockdown but the period was expected to be short. Fast forward a few weeks and lockdowns in Brisbane and Sydney were extended with Sydney marking its sixth week under stay-at-home orders. All of this has and will continue to take a toll on Australia’s economy as the country faces a reasonable chance of contraction in the third quarter. As the year progresses, differences in monetary policy direction will become a stronger driving force for currencies. This week’s Australia and U.K rate decisions will highlight the divergence between two countries with vastly different COVID situations. Large parts of Australia were in lockdown in July whereas the U.K removed all restrictions last month. The Bank of England will be debating a further reduction in bond purchases. Divergences like these are not unique to these two countries and as they become more apparent, the impact on currency pairs will be more significant.

Euro

The single currency steadied as German consumer prices, to make them comparable with inflation data from other European Union countries, rose by 3.1% in July, a 13-year high, compared with 2.1% in June, leading services sector trade union Verdi to demand significant wage increases. It shows that unrestrained borrowing is no political plan in the long run. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1850 and a high of 1.1907 before closing the day around 1.1868 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen gained as the dollar lurched lower yesterday, back towards the one-month lows hit last week when it became clear the Fed was in no hurry to tighten policy and policymakers broadly shared Chairman Jerome Powell’s view that rate rises were “a ways away”. Markets are awaiting the July non-farm payrolls report, due on Friday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.34 and a high of 109.81 before closing the day around 109.67 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound steadied yesterday versus the dollar, ahead of a Bank of England meeting later in the week, as global risk tone improved on optimism for the U.S infrastructure bill. A drop in COVID-19 cases and the reopening of the British economy fueled a rebound in the pound in July, with the currency re-emerging from its biggest fall in nine months in June. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3886 and a high of 1.3981 before closing the day at 1.3903 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar traded higher against the U.S Dollar yesterday. The week ahead contains little of note in the economic calendar for Canada ahead of Friday’s July job report that consensus expects to confirm a 145.7k increase in the number of new jobs created in Canada last month, which is seen pulling the unemployment rate lower from 7.8% to 7.3%. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2419 and a high of 1.2489 before closing the day at 1.2460 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar popped higher after the country’s central bank surprised markets by sticking with plans to taper bond buying, arguing the economy will recover quickly once coronavirus lockdowns ease. The Aussie gained 0.6% when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said it would trim its weekly bond-buying to A$4 billion ($2.96 billion) in September as planned. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7408 and a high of 0.7485 before closing the day at 0.7421 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.05%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 53 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.20%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 38 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.50%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has gained 0.24%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.49%.

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

FOREX-U.S Jobless claims rose

The U.S dollar was mixed, rising against the euro, the Swiss Franc and the Australian dollar, steady versus the Japanese Yen and New Zealand dollars and falling against the sterling and the Canadian dollar. Jobless claims rose more than expected and existing home sales rose less but the median price of a home sold rose to a new all-time high. Treasury yields resumed their slide as coronavirus cases in the U.S rise 53% week over week with the Delta variant accounting for 83% of new cases. This variant has already prompted fresh restrictions in other parts of the world and the worry is that come fall, the same will happen in the U.S Canadian retail sales and U.K. PMIs are scheduled for release on Friday as well. Stronger numbers are expected as fewer restrictions bolster economic activity in both countries. The European Central Bank’s monetary policy announcement was the most important event this week but it did not inspire any breakout moves for EUR/USD. This of course is exactly what central bankers hoped for which is limited volatility when big announcements are made. For the ECB, their first major inflation change in two decades was announced earlier this month and today, the central bank made the change in forwarding guidance official. EUR/USD initially traded above 1.1830 but by the London close, it dropped below 1.1760 intraday. We talked about the possibility of EUR/USD rallying after the rate decision in yesterday’s note, but the distance that the ECB has put between themselves, and other central banks prevented a durable bounce. In yesterday’s meeting, the ECB confirmed that they are in no rush to raise interest rates. Not only did they avoid any taper talk, which is a sharp contrast to other central banks, they also amended their forward guidance to account for higher inflation tolerance. From July forward, the ECB expects to keep interest rates at their present or lower levels until inflation reaches 2% well ahead of their projection horizon, AND remain durably at or above that rate for the rest of the projection period. Although ECB President Lagarde said there were expectations for strong growth in the Eurozone economy in the third quarter, the outlook for inflation is subdued and the Delta coronavirus variant is a “growing source of uncertainty.” Between the change in forwarding guidance, Lagarde’s subdued inflation outlook and their concerns about the Delta variant, the ECB has made it very clear that they don’t share the Federal Reserve, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Canada and Bank of England’s view that it may be time to start reducing asset purchases. Euro was the day’s worst performer and we expect the currency to remain under pressure.

Euro

The single currency fell as investors digested the European Central Bank statement and comment by its president. ECB President Christine Lagarde, in her media briefing, did not say anything to change the market's cautious outlook on the eurozone. She said a fresh wave of the coronavirus pandemic could pose a risk to the region's recovery. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1823 and a high of 1.1880 before closing the day around 1.1877 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen remained on the back foot after pulling back from multi-month highs amid a recovery in risk appetite as strong earnings lifted Wall Street stocks. The consensus is that the Delta strain does not pose an immediate risk to the recovery, delaying reopening by three months at the most as countries ramp up vaccination drives in response. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.71 and a high of 110.24 before closing the day around 110.10 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound erased its losses on the week against the dollar yesterday as recovering risk sentiment in global markets helped buoy currencies correlated with economic growth. Investor nerves over whether vaccinations will successfully head off future lockdowns amid surging coronavirus cases had led to a stock selloff earlier this week. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3754 and a high of 1.3898 before closing the day at 1.3897 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed against the greenback yesterday, with the currency holding on to gains over the last two days as oil rose and ahead of data that could offer clues on the domestic economy's strength coming out of lockdowns. Analysts expect retail sales data on Friday to show a 3% decline in May from April. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2440 and a high of 1.2554 before closing the day at 1.2441 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar kicked off the trading session with downbeat economic data. The country’s services sector saw a contraction in growth for July, while manufacturing growth slowed, according to PMI data from IHS Markit. The services sector index fell to 44.2 from 56, and the manufacturing index fell to 56.8 from 58.6. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7408 and a high of 0.7485 before closing the day at 0.7421 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 35 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has gained 0.63%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has gained 1.15%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 36 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 1.15%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.54%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.67%.

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

Daily technical analysis-The bulls completely dominated the market

  EUR/USD Current level - 1.1778

The downward movement was once again limited by the support level at 1.1760 and the currency pair continues to trade within the narrow range between 1.1760 - 1.1800. At the time of writing, the market has no clear direction and the bulls might try to take the pair towards 1.1850. Only a breach of the critical support at 1.1760 may lead to further sell-offs, heading the EUR/USD towards the next support at 1.1717.

USD/JPY Current level -  110.11

At the time of writing this analysis, the currency pair is found in the consolidation phase and the expectations are for a new test of the resistance at 110.30. In case this resistance is breached and the bulls enter the market, then it is possible for the pair to head towards 110.60 - 111.10. In the negative direction, the first support is located at 109.70.

GBP/USD Current level - 1.3774

The sterling continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar and is currently headed towards a test of the resistance at 1.3800. If this level is breached, it is possible for the pair to test the next resistance at 1.3860. If the bears prevail and the resistance at 1.3800 is not breached, then the pair is expected to test the support at 1.3665.

DAX30 Current level - 15564

During the last trading sessions, the German index recovered its recent losses and gained more than 400 points. The bulls completely dominated the market and, if they don't lose their momentum, the index will most likely breach the resistance at 15586 and head towards the next resistance level of 15698. In the downward direction, the first important support is found at 15464.

US30 Current level -  34884

In the last trading sessions, volatility was high and we witnessed a strong rebound from the support at 33747, which gave the bulls complete control over the market and the US30 rose above the resistance at 34695. At the time of writing, the expectations are for a move towards the resistance at 35030. Before attacking the aforementioned level, however, a slight corrective move towards the support at 34695 is a possible scenario.

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

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Daily technical analysis-Ongoing fears of new lockdowns across Europe

 EUR/USD Current level - 1.1794

The depreciation of the common European currency against the dollar came to a halt slightly below the support zone of 1.1773 and, at the time of writing the analysis, the pair is headed towards a test of the resistance level of 1.1805. The short-term forecast is for the pair to enter into a consolidation phase within the range between 1.1773-1.1849 before either the buyers or the sellers take control. A spike in volatility is expected around the announcement of the European Central Bank interest rate decision (11:45 GMT) and during the press conference following the announcement (12:30 GMT).

USD/JPY Current level -  110.14

During yesterday's trading session, the dollar managed to partially recover against the yen, but the test of the resistance level of 110.30 was unsuccessful and the short-term expectations are for the pair to trade in a consolidation phase above the support level of 109.72. The main resistance level remains the aforementioned level of 110.30.

GBP/USD Current level - 1.3703

The pound found support at the level of 1.3570 and stopped depreciating against the dollar. At the time of writing, the pair is found in a corrective phase, which is expected to be limited by the resistance level of 1.3800. The most likely scenario, after the corrective phase ends, is for the pair to retest the support level of 1.3570.

DAX Current level - 15464

The German index continues to recover after the huge sell-off at the start of the week. Yesterday, the DAX30 breached the resistance level of 15358 and, at the time of writing, is headed towards a test of the resistance level of 15464. The expectations are for the index to continue recovering, but considering the ongoing fears of new lockdowns across Europe spurred by the new "Delta” variant of the virus, new sell-offs, as well as increased volatility, are possible.

US30 Current level -  34839

The U.S. blue-chip index is headed towards a test of the resistance level of 34846 and, if the test proves to be successful, it is possible that the psychological level of 35000 will be reached. Similar to the German index, the US30 could face strong sell-offs because of the fears stemming from the new "Delta” variant of COVID-19. During today's trading session, investors' attention will be focused on the initial jobless claims data (12:30 GMT).

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.