The oil market remains tight and prices are still on course for a move towards $100 a barrel

Wall Street ended sharply higher yesterday, as signs of de-escalating tensions along the Russia-Ukraine border sparked a risk-on session. All three major indexes notched solid advances on the day, with market-leading tech and tech-adjacent stocks providing the biggest boost and putting the NASDAQ, which gained 2.5%, out front. 

The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor index jumped 5.5% in its largest one-day percentage gain since March 2021. Geopolitical heat was turned down a notch after Russia said it had withdrawn some of its troops near the Ukraine border, prompting bullish equities sentiment and causing crude prices to slide on easing supply concerns. The announcement received guarded responses, and the United States and NATO said they had yet to see evidence of a drawdown.

Stocks briefly pared gains late in the session, when U.S President Joe Biden said that while diplomatic efforts are ongoing. Markets have been moving based on Putin or Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Economic Calendar

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.22%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Salesforce.com Inc., which rose 3.80% or 7.85 points to trade at 214.25 at the close. Meanwhile, Boeing Co added 3.66% or 7.69 points to end at 217.73 and American Express Company was up 2.93% or 5.63 points to 197.98 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Chevron Corp, which fell 0.73% or 0.99 points to trade at 134.26 at the close. 3M Company declined 0.42% or 0.67 points to end at 157.34 and International Business Machines was down 0.16% or 0.21 points to 129.94.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 2.53%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were Resonant Inc. which rose 256.91% to 4.390, Color Star Technology Co Ltd which was up 93.11% to settle at 0.8881 and Tower Semiconductor Ltd which gained 42.08% to close at 47.07. The worst performers were Larimar Therapeutics Inc. which was down 52.09% to 4.010 in late trade, Hudson Capital Inc. which lost 31.82% to settle at 3.420 and Medpace Holdings Inc. which was down 20.30% to 138.87 at the close.

Trade Commodities Today! GOLD, SILVER, and OIL

Oil

Oil prices recouped losses today after slipping more than 3% in the previous session, as investors gauged the impact of easing Russia-Ukraine tension against a taut balance of tight global supplies and recovering fuel demand. U.S crude was at $92.71 a barrel, up 64 cents, or 0.7%, after the contract ended Tuesday's session down 3.6%.

The price of Brent jumped 50% in 2021, while WTI soared about 60%, as a global recovery in demand from the COVID-19 pandemic strained supply. Moscow's Tuesday announcement of a partial pullback in troops from Ukraine's borders was met with skepticism, as U.S President Joe Biden warned that more than 150,000 Russian troops were still massed near the borders. But beyond the Ukraine tension, the oil market remains tight and prices are still on course for a move towards $100 a barrel. Technically we could see prices heading back to $90 a barrel on profit-taking, but they will trend higher towards $100 as the economy is getting back on track.

Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices ticked higher as the dollar slid on Wednesday after safe-haven bullion retreated from an eight-month high in the previous session on easing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Spot gold gained 0.2% to $1,856.83 per ounce. U.S gold futures were nearly steady at $1,857.80. Gold prices touched their highest level since June last year on Tuesday, before reversing course to close almost 1% lower. 

Asian shares rallied after Moscow indicated it was returning some troops to base from exercises. Looking ahead, the more fungible dollar is the preferred safe haven to gold among core investors and could fall on any further de-escalation in the Ukraine crisis, prompting a rally in gold and vice-versa. The dollar dipped slightly on Wednesday, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. 

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British consumer prices rose at the fastest annual pace in nearly 30 years last month, reinforcing the chances that the Bank of England will raise interest rates for the third meeting in a row. Elsewhere, the U.S. Federal Reserve will kick off its tightening cycle in March with a 25 basis-point interest rate hike, a Reuters poll found, but a growing minority says it will opt for a more aggressive half-point move to tamp down inflation. 

Besides weekly momentum indicators and buying the 'dip' indicating that the path of least resistance is higher, most traders do expect higher volatility to be a main-stay of gold markets going forth as rumors and market whispers increase. Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.8% to $23.53 per ounce, platinum firmed 0.3% to $1,028.28, and palladium climbed 1.7% to $2,286.52. Copper prices firmed today as easing fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine boosted risk appetite, with investors closely watching the release of the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting minutes for clues on the roadmap for rate hikes. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.2%.

Traditional Agricultures

Wheat and corn futures fell yesterday as Moscow’s announcement that some of its troops were returning to base after drills tempered investor fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine that could disrupt Black Sea export flows. Soybean fell as traders assessed chances for rain in dry growing belts in Argentina.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

President Joe Biden said that a Russian attack on Ukraine remains a possibility

• The U.S dollar was down as investors absorbed the latest news on the Russia-Ukraine standoff
• Concern over the standoff has driven gains recently in the safe-haven dollar
• The euro's rally from the previous day petered out in today’s Asian trading session

The U.S dollar was down slightly yesterday as investors absorbed the latest news on the Russia-Ukraine standoff, with the dollar index briefly paring some of its losses late in the day after President Joe Biden said that a Russian attack on Ukraine remains a possibility.

Biden, in nationally televised remarks, also said reports that some Russian forces have moved away from the Ukraine border have not yet been verified by the United States. Earlier, Russia said that some of its troops were returning to base after exercises near Ukraine, news that appeared to reduce investor anxiety over the crisis in the region. 

Economic Calendar

Concern over the standoff has driven gains recently in the safe-haven dollar, but investors mostly took a risk-on view yesterday, with U.S. stocks rising. The U.S dollar index was last down 0.3%, while the euro was up 0.5% against the dollar at $1.1358. The U.S dollar was up 0.1% against the yen at 115.64 and up 0.1% against the Swiss franc at 0.9255. Biden also said the U.S is "not seeking direct confrontation with Russia" but that if Russia were to attack Americans in Ukraine, "We will respond forcefully." 

Market participants will also remain alert to any comments this week from U.S. Federal Reserve officials on the interest rate hike outlook. Fed officials continue to spar over how aggressively to begin raising rates at their March meeting, with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard on Monday reiterating calls for a faster pace of Fed rate hikes. Other Fed officials have been less willing to commit to a half-point hike or were even concerned it could cause trouble. 

The ECB has joined its central bank peers in signaling a hawkish turn in its monetary policy at a meeting this month. Investors also assessed data showing U.S producer prices increased by the most in eight months in January.

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Euro

The single currency rally from the previous day petered out in Asia today, though it held its overnight gains, as optimism after reports that some Russian forces had moved away from the Ukraine border, was tempered by news of a cyberattack. The greenback "shed ground overnight as the Ukraine geopolitical risk premium came out of markets. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1278 and a high of 1.1367 before closing the day around 1.1305 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen steadied as investors absorbed the latest news on the Russia-Ukraine standoff, with the dollar index briefly paring some of its losses after President said that a Russian attack on Ukraine remains a possibility. Biden, in nationally televised remarks, also said reports that some Russian forces have moved away from the Ukraine border. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.99 and a high of 115.73 before closing the day around 115.52 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound weakened against the dollar and the euro yesterday, as the single currency firmed on reports that Russia was returning some troops near Ukraine to their bases. Data showed that annual pay growth in Britain in the final quarter of 2021 edged up to 4.3% from 4.2% in the three months to November. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3493 and a high of 1.3570 before closing the day at 1.3525 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar was little changed against its U.S counterpart yesterday as investors weighed tentative signs of easing tension in Ukraine and looked ahead to key Canadian inflation data. Oil has been supported in recent weeks by the prospect of a disruption in Russian energy supplies. Domestic data showed that home prices jumped 4.9% in January. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2717 and a high of 1.2781 before closing the day at 1.2727 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar edged higher today as markets chose to focus on hopeful signs for Ukraine, while bonds were battered by another surprisingly strong reading on U.S inflationary pressures. The improvement in risk sentiment hit bonds hard, as did a high reading of U.S producer prices that only added to talk of a half-point rate increase. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7169 and a high of 0.7228 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

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Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.21%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.08%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies above the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.12%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.21%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Investors are lost in the fog of war and that’s why we are seeing this volatility

Wall Street indexes turned sharply lower yesterday, as news that the United States is closing its Kyiv embassy in Ukraine heightened geopolitical tensions and prompted a sell-off in choppy trading. 

All three major indexes fell after the Wall Street Journal reported on the relocation of U.S. diplomatic operations to western Ukraine, in a possible harbinger of an imminent Russian invasion. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged state officials, politicians, and business leaders who have recently left the country to return within 24 hours to show unity.

Investors don’t like uncertainty, and this is obviously a period of increased uncertainty and that’s why you’re seeing this volatility. Geopolitical anxieties have been simmering in recent weeks as negotiators scrambled to find a diplomatic path forward as Russia massed troops along the Ukrainian border. Recent data showed U.S. inflation at its hottest level in decades, ratcheting up concerns that the Fed could begin hiking key interest rates more aggressively than many had anticipated.

Economic Calendar

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.49%. The biggest gainers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Nike Inc., which rose 1.01% or 1.41 points to trade at 141.59 at the close. Walt Disney Company added 0.92% or 1.38 points to end at 150.85 and Coca-Cola Co was up 0.65% or 0.39 points to 60.68 in late trade. The biggest losers included Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc., which lost 2.75% or 1.34 points to trade at 47.36 in late trade. International Business Machines declined 1.91% or 2.54 points to end at 130.15 and Chevron Corp shed 1.54% or 2.14 points to 136.67.

NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index lost 0.03%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were BioDelivery Sciences International which rose 52.75% to 5.560, Knightscope Inc. which was up 32.91% to settle at 8.40 and Alpine 4 Holdings Inc. which gained 22.30% to close at 1.81. The worst performers were Dave Inc. which was down 36.91% to 5.88 in late trade, RumbleON Inc. which lost 30.22% to settle at 26.86 and Gravity Co Ltd which was down 26.45% to 45.44 at the close.

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Oil

Oil dropped from a seven-year high to around $94 a barrel, pressured by a report that some troops in Russia's military districts adjacent to Ukraine are returning to bases, a move that could de-escalate tension between Moscow and the West. 

Russia's Interfax news agency cited the defense ministry as saying that while large-scale drills across the country continued, some units of the Southern and Western military districts have completed their exercises and started returning to base. U.S crude dropped $2.00, or 2.1%, to $93.46. 

There are no prizes for guessing the driving force behind this bout of volatility. The Russia-Ukraine crisis has put the energy market on high alert for possible disruptions of Russian energy supplies. Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said on Tuesday a Russian invasion of Ukraine was highly likely, although Prime Minister Boris Johnson and U.S. President Joe Biden agreed in a call on Monday there was a crucial window for diplomacy. 

Investors are also watching talks between the United States and Iran on reviving Tehran's nuclear deal with world powers.

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Precious and Base Metals

Gold prices were steady near an eight-month high today, has heightened tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine prompted investors to shun riskier assets and opt for safe-haven bullion. Spot gold was steady at $1,869.46 per ounce, after hitting its highest level since June 11 at $1,879.48 earlier. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,878.00. 

Due to the Ukraine crisis, gold is supported through the inflation channel because of higher crude oil prices and through the risk aversion channel because of lower stocks, said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management. If we lose that Ukraine impulse, then gold comes off quite quickly. Bullion is usually perceived as a hedge against geopolitical conflicts, and with simmering tensions surrounding Ukraine, spot gold has risen about 5% since Jan. 31 and is set for the tenth session of gains in 12. 

The (gold) market seems to be ignoring major central banks right now because investors are lost in the fog of war and it becomes very difficult to have a salient macro or fundamental view in this type of market where you really have to just go trade on a hair-trigger. 

How to trade using Divergence

Further supporting bullion, benchmark U.S 10-year Treasury yields eased, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-paying gold, while a slightly weaker dollar helped make the metal more attractive for overseas buyers. If Russia further reduces gas supply into Europe, leading to higher energy prices across the board, that will be a positive for gold. I do however expect gold to top out around $1,920-$1,930 roughly. 

Elsewhere, spot silver fell 0.7% to $23.66 per ounce, platinum was down 0.2% to $1,025.81, and palladium dipped 2.4% to $2,303.45. Copper prices, often viewed as a gauge of global economic health, fell on Tuesday as tensions at the Ukrainian border prompted investors to scale back purchases of riskier assets. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was down 0.4%.

Traditional Agricultures

Corn and wheat ended higher after earlier losses, with corn underpinned by strong export inspections and wheat weighing tensions between Russia and Ukraine that could threaten Black Sea exports. Soybean fell, pressured by rainfall in parts of South America that could refresh parched crops.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Tensions in Eastern Europe pushed demand for the dollar and the safe-haven yen

• The U.S dollar index reached a two-week high on growing worries about Russia-Ukraine tensions
• The euro edged up a little today but was still nursing bruises after two sessions of sharp losses
• The Canadian dollar edged lower against the greenback in yesterday’s trading session

U.S dollar index reached a two-week high yesterday on growing worries about Russia-Ukraine tensions and as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated calls for faster U.S Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

The index briefly jumped further in afternoon trading after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Ukrainians to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16, a date some Western media have cited as the possible start of a Russian invasion.

The comments spooked investors, who have fled to the safe-haven dollar amid the escalating geopolitical problem, but the dollar index quickly came off those highs. Ukrainian officials said Zelenskiy was not predicting an attack on that date but instead responding with skepticism to foreign media reports. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was deeply worried about "increased speculation" about a military conflict, and urged world leaders to step up diplomacy to calm the situation. 

Economic Calendar

Washington had said Russia could invade Ukraine "any day now," and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday called the situation "very, very dangerous." The big driver clearly tensions in Ukraine. 

Markets are in risk-off mode across the board. Earlier Monday, Bullard also said four strong inflation reports in a row warranted action and that the central bank needed to "ratify" market expectations of its upcoming moves. Last week's stronger-than-expected U.S. consumer price index report has driven speculation the Fed might raise rates by a full 50 basis points in March. 

Clearly, we still have the aftershocks of last week's inflation report and St. Louis Fed president Bullard's comments. The move into safe-haven assets has overshadowed expectations for monetary policy tightening from the European Central Bank. ECB President Christine Lagarde also recently reiterated that any policy action would be gradual.

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Euro

The single currency edged up a little in Asian trading today but was still nursing bruises after two sessions of sharp losses as tensions in Eastern Europe pushed demand for the dollar and the safe-haven yen. Moves were slightly more cautious elsewhere and the overall result was that the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six peers. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1278 and a high of 1.1367 before closing the day around 1.1305 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded higher on growing worries about Russia-Ukraine tensions and as St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard reiterated calls for faster U.S Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy urged Ukrainians to fly the country's flags from buildings and sing the national anthem in unison on Feb. 16. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.99 and a high of 115.73 before closing the day around 115.52 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound fell to a one-week low against a stronger dollar yesterday as the possibility of war in Ukraine, along with the prospect of a Federal Reserve rate hike, gave investors reason to turn more risk-averse. Hotter-than-expected US inflation data last week also weighed on investor sentiment, as markets bet the Federal Reserve will lift rates. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3493 and a high of 1.3570 before closing the day at 1.3525 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against the greenback yesterday, as investors weighed warnings that Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and a major trade route between Canada and the United States reopened. Hints by Ukraine at possible concessions to Russia helped cap the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2717 and a high of 1.2781 before closing the day at 1.2727 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar marked time today as global markets waited to see how events in Ukraine would unfold, while strength in energy and metals prices favored the Aussie over the kiwi. Hobbling the Aussie has been the dogged dovishness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), with minutes of its latest meeting confirming it was in no rush to raise rates. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7169 and a high of 0.7228 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.21%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.08%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.06%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies above the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.12%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.21%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The United States said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion

• A Russian attack could begin any day and would likely start with an air assault
• The dollar had been trading mostly sideways when the U.S warning hit markets
• The Canadian dollar weakened as the potential for an imminent Russian attack triggered a sell-off

The dollar rose along with other safe-haven assets on Friday after the United States said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion. 

A Russian attack could begin any day and would likely start with an air assault, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told a media briefing. The dollar had been trading mostly sideways when the U.S. warning hit markets. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.258%.

Economic Calendar

U.S crude futures jumped more than 5% to $94.66 a barrel, the highest since 2014, while gold rose more than 2% to a near two-month high at one point. The dollar's rise was due to Sullivan's comments, as well as reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade Ukraine, which the White House later disputed. That move up, along with moves in other safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and the Japanese yen, indicates the market is growing more and more concerned about the prospect of an invasion. 

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.63% versus the greenback at 115.29 per dollar, while the Canadian dollar weakened as the potential for an imminent Russian attack triggered a sell-off in risk-sensitive assets. Russia's currency, already lower for the day, fell further on the news. 

The rouble was last down 2.73% versus the greenback at 77.00 per dollar. Washington urged all U.S. citizens to leave the country within 48 hours. Other countries, including Britain, Japan, Latvia, Norway, and the Netherlands told their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately. 

The euro, meanwhile, weakened as markets processed the news, and was set for a weekly decline after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said in an interview that raising rates now would not bring down record eurozone inflation but only hurt the economy. 

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The greenback had struggled to pick a direction earlier in the day as investors digested the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for February. That report found that U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in more than a decade in early February amid expectations that inflation would continue to rise in the near term.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index edging up. The market's lack of clarity as to how interest rate hikes might progress has contributed to frenzied sessions this week as the dollar remains undecided on the future. I tend to think we consolidate in the short term here and am still biased toward euro downside, dollar upside against most currencies. Wall Street tumbled and safe-havens such as U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar rallied after Washington said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion.

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Euro

The single currency fell against the U.S Dollar as traders on edge about the prospect of war in Europe and unsettled by soaring inflation. The risk of war in Ukraine pushed the euro down on Friday and it was nursing losses well below last week's top of $1.1495. Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1413 and a high of 1.1461 before closing the day around 1.1441 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen gained after the U.S said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion. A Russian attack could begin any day and would likely start with an air assault, White House national security adviser Jake told a media briefing. The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.258%. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 114.89 and a high of 115.36 before closing the day around 115.09 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound held its ground on Friday and posted a second consecutive weekly gain as expectations of rising interest rates propped up the currency. The pound’s strength against the dollar was in stark contrast to the greenback’s other major rivals, which weakened in early trading amid rising expectations of U.S interest rate increases in the coming weeks. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3488 and a high of 1.3549 before closing the day at 1.3534 in the New York session.

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Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened, giving back some of this week's gains, as the potential for an imminent Russian attack on Ukraine triggered a selloff in risk-sensitive assets. Wall Street tumbled and safe-havens such as U.S Treasuries and the U.S dollar rallied after Washington said Russia has massed enough troops near Ukraine to launch a major invasion. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2655 and a high of 1.2754 before closing the day at 1.2664 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar left drifting as geopolitical concerns over Ukraine offset further gains in global commodity prices as inflation becomes more broad-based. The Aussie was also under pressure given the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) was showing little urgency to tighten, while the market was rife with speculation the U.S Federal Reserve could hike by 50 basis points next month. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7169 and a high of 0.7228 before closing the day at 0.7171 in the New York session.

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​Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 41 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.15%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading below 14 and above 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 45 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.01%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading above 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 43 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.63%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and below 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bullish tone and MACD is also issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies above the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.17%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish stance and MACD is also indicating a bearish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 46 and lies above the neutral region. In general, the pair has lost 0.14%.

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All information has been prepared by TraderFactor or partners. The information does not contain a record of TraderFactor or partners prices or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may read it. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

U.S crude inventories dropped by nearly 5 million barrels and fuel demand rose to an all-time high

Wall Street jumped on Wednesday, closing sharply higher as mega-cap growth stocks powered up thanks to a pause in rising interest rates, and upbeat earnings reports also encouraged investors to buy. 

The benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury yield slipped from multi-year highs hit in the previous session, helping steady sentiment across global markets and boosting demand for growth stocks. Meta Platforms surged more than 5%, ending four sessions of deep declines that saw it lose almost a third of its value. 

The biggest boosts to the S&P 500 came from Nvidia, up 2.2%, and Microsoft, up 6.4%. All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by a 2.45% jump in real estate. The bond market basically is saying there's a cap or a limit to how much the Fed is likely to raise rates, and that is very positive for stocks in general, and especially for growth stocks that tend to be valued higher. Hit by worries about rising interest, the tech-heavy NASDAQ has fallen more than 7% so far this year after gaining nearly 21% in 2021. The S&P 500 is down about 4% year to date.

Economic Calendar

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.86%. The best performers of the session on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were Walt Disney Company, which rose 3.33% or 4.75 points to trade at 147.23 at the close. Meanwhile, Intel Corporation added 2.25% or 1.10 points to end at 49.91 and Microsoft Corporation was up 2.18% or 6.65 points to 311.21 in late trade. The worst performers of the session were Amgen Inc., which fell 1.58% or 3.82 points to trade at 237.19 at the close. Coca-Cola Co declined 1.55% or 0.96 points to end at 61.04 and Merck & Company Inc. was down 0.49% or 0.38 points to 76.53.

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NASDAQ 100

The NASDAQ index added 2.08%. The top performers on the NASDAQ Composite were US Ecology Inc. which rose 67.73% to 47.25, Tritium Dcfc Ltd which was up 64.57% to settle at 15.70 and Gracell Biotechnologies Inc. which gained 34.10% to close at 4.09. The worst performers were Zosano Pharma Corp which was down 48.56% to 0.2431 in late trade, QuinStreet Inc. which lost 26.85% to settle at 11.39 and Society Pass Inc. which was down 23.72% to 3.57 at the close.

Oil

Oil prices rallied yesterday after U.S crude inventories dropped by nearly 5 million barrels and fuel demand rose to an all-time high, underscoring the market's ongoing tightness. U.S crude (WTI) ended up 30 cents to $89.66 a barrel. U.S crude stocks fell by 4.8 million barrels last week to 410.4 million barrels, their lowest since October 2018, while overall product supplied, a proxy for demand, hit a record 21.9 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, government data showed. 

The heavy activity and ramp-up in U.S refinery processing augur for a tight market for coming months. The data was decidedly bullish hands down - everything was bullish, with inventories at their lowest level in years. The market has also been supported by concerns about ongoing threats to supply in the United Arab Emirates, which has been hit by attacks from Yemen's Houthi group, and over Russia due to the presence of thousands of its troops near Ukraine's border. The bullish U.S energy data offset the prospect of increased supply from Iran.

Trade Commodities Today! GOLD, SILVER, and OIL

Precious and Base Metals

Gold eked out gains yesterday, helped by a weaker dollar and a retreat in U.S. Treasury yields, although prices moved in a tight range as investors refrained from making large bets ahead of U.S inflation data. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $1,834.25 per ounce. U.S gold futures settled up 0.5% at $1,836.60. 

The dollar is down a little bit and it seems somewhat supportive to gold, but overall the gold market is just kind of flat in anticipation of today's CPI number. Benchmark 10-year U.S Treasury yields were off their November 2019 highs, while the dollar eased, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for other currency holders. 

Elliott waves signal for Gold

All eyes are on U.S. consumer price data for January due on Thursday that could provide more clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory. A robust inflation reading is expected to burnish gold's mettle as an inflation hedge, but U.S interest rate increases would raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. 

U.S central bank officials have signaled they will start raising interest rates next month to fight high inflation. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said yesterday U.S may be nearing a turn lower in inflation, but added he is still leaning towards a slightly faster pace of rate increases this year. 

Rising prices are eroding the value of fiat currencies around the world, making gold an appealing investment for many. But gold must now clear the key $1,830-$1,850 resistance range if it were to make a more serious comeback. Among other precious metals, silver rose 0.5% to $23.28 per ounce, platinum was up 0.4% at $1,036.02 and palladium climbed 1.7% to $2,286.01.

Investors have been revising their forecasts for ECB rate hikes

Traditional Agricultures

Soybean and corn futures set eight-month highs on concerns about the risk for more unfavorable crop weather in drought-stressed growing areas of South America. The U.S Department of Agriculture, in a monthly crop report, pegged Brazil’s soy crop at 134 million tonnes, down from 139 million in January, and Argentina’s soy crop at 45 million, down from 46.5 million. Analysts surveyed by Reuters, on average, expected 133.65 million for Brazil and 44.51 million for Argentina. USDA will likely need to make further cuts. Some private analysts have predicted Brazilian production drop to around 125 million tonnes.

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