Powell was clear to detach tapering from the rate liftoff, or raising interest rates

  The dollar is nursing losses today and kept near multi-week lows

 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid out a slower-than-expected path to rate hikes

 Traders latched on to the wiggle-room in the rates outlook and sold dollars

 The Australian and New Zealand dollars also hung on to sizeable Friday gains

The dollar slid on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated in a highly anticipated speech that the U.S central bank could start tapering its massive support to the economy could start by year's end, which was not as fast as many in the market had assumed. Powell said there had been clear progress toward maximum employment and he believed that if the U.S. economy improved as anticipated, "it could be appropriate to start reducing the pace of asset purchases this year." But Powell told the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium the timing and pace of tapering should not be construed as a signal for when interest rates will begin to rise. The speech showed Powell has not adopted the hawkish stance of some Fed officials. It's pretty clear that if you were worried about the timeline, that we announce in September that we're going to taper starting Oct. 1, that's not there in this speech. It's not as bad as feared based on the most extreme of the hawks. 

The dollar index, which measures the greenback's performance against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.39% to 92.6760. 

The euro rose 0.37% to $1.1794, while the yen fell 0.24% at $109.8200. After minutes of the Fed's policy-setting meeting in July were released last week, the dollar advanced because most market participants anticipated tapering to begin this year. 

Powell was clear to detach tapering from the rate liftoff, or raising interest rates. 

The dollar fell as market participants sharply lowered expectations for the Fed’s long-term tightening trajectory. The dollar began to retreat about 15 minutes before Powell spoke, after James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, reiterated his hawkish view that tapering should begin soon and end by next year's first quarter. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell 3.4 basis points to trade at 1.3104%. On Thursday yields jumped to 1.375%, the highest since Aug. 12. 

The Canadian dollar rose 0.56% to 1.2612 versus the U.S dollar.

Brent futures, the international benchmark for crude, rose $1.63 to settle at $72.70 a barrel and gained 11.5% for the week. 

The Canadian currency generally takes its cues from oil, risk with the S&P 500 as a proxy and interest rate differentials. 

The Canadian dollar's strength on Friday was a reflection not so much of Canada, but what's happening in the U.S and the market takeaway from Powell's speech. 

Britain's pound jumped half a percent to the dollar to more than a week's high on Friday and was set for a 1% weekly gain as the greenback fell after U.S Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stopped short of signaling the timing for a policy shift.

Euro

The single currency gained on Friday as the dollar fell as market participants sharply lowered expectations for the Fed’s long-term tightening trajectory. The dollar began to retreat about 15 minutes before Powell spoke, after James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, reiterated his hawkish view that tapering should begin soon. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1744 and a high of 1.1777 before closing the day around 1.1750 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen traded higher in Friday’s trading session as the dollar nursed losses and kept near multi-week lows after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell laid out a slower-than-expected path to rate hikes, while a storm lashing oilfields in the Gulf of Mexico lifted oil-exposed currencies. Powell was vague on the timing of tapering. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 109.90 and a high of 110.21 before closing the day around 110.06 in the U.S session.

British Pound

The British Pound jumped half a percent to more than a week's high on Friday and had a 1% weekly gain as the greenback fell after U.S Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell stopped short of signaling the timing for a policy shift. The lack of a concrete signal about potential tapering of the central bank's stimulus program knocked the dollar lower. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3687 and a high of 1.3766 before closing the day at 1.3698 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar gained on Friday after the greenback dropped broadly after Powell managed to flag an exit from emergency monetary policy settings that did not spook markets or suggest a rush to raise interest rates. Traders latched on to the wiggle-room in the rates outlook and sold dollars, while Treasury yields fell. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2582 and a high of 1.2693 before closing the day at 1.2683 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar is edging higher versus the US Dollar in today’s Asia-Pacific session. The Greenback is unchanged against most of its peers. Traders may be digesting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments from Friday’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Mr. Powell’s message hinted that tapering QE asset purchases will likely commence this year but failed to give a clear timeline. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7331 and a high of 0.7379 before closing the day at 0.7368 in the New York session.

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This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

Hurricane Ida life-threatening

Hurricane Ida is one of the strongest storms to ever hit Louisiana.

Ida is weakening to a tropical storm, which will turn to life-threatening floods.

Today we might see Hurricane Ida turning in flash flooding, damaging winds, and tornadoes threatening thousands of lives. 

Some areas are already left without electricity and phone lines and more power outages are expected. 

More than 1 million people are without power. The first death is already reposted in Lousiana. President Joe Biden requests a major disaster and recovery plan.

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This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

Inflation pressures remain strong

The U.S dollar advanced against a basket of currencies yesterday after data showed producer prices posted their largest annual increase in more than a decade in the 12 months through July, suggesting inflation pressures remain strong.

The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six rivals, was 0.1% higher at 93.019. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in July, a Labor Department report showed on Thursday, suggesting inflation could remain high as strong demand fueled by the recovery continues to hurt supply chains.

The producer price index (PPI) for final demand increased 1.0% last month after rising 1.0% in June. In the 12 months through July, the PPI jumped 7.8%, a record high since the measure was introduced just over a decade ago. Separately, data showed the number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits fell again last week as the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continued.

Investors remain vigilant for any signs of inflation running too hot since it could potentially spur the Federal Reserve to pull forward its the timing on tapering of asset purchases as well as interest rate hikes. 

The U.S dollar held near the top of a tight overnight range as fresh data renewed pressure on the Fed to shift away from low rate policy. The greenback has broadly strengthened since mid-June - hitting its highest since April 1 at 93.195 prior to Wednesday's data - when the U.S Federal Reserve flagged that it was gearing up for earlier-than-expected rate hikes and amid evidence that the release of pent-up demand in a rebounding economy was fueling price rises. Yesterday's data helped the greenback shake off some of the weakness from the prior session when data showed U.S consumer price increases slowed in July, easing concerns thе the Federal Reserve will imminently signal a scaling back of bond purchases. 

Yesterday's huge upside PPI surprise follows solid but moderating CPI gains, leaving a mix that will keep inflation concerns alive even as economists will continue to expect a slowing in monthly price gains into year-end. Sterling fell 0.5% on the day against the broadly stronger U.S dollar as analysts expected the Bank of England to make no moves in its monetary policy after official data showed Britain's economy grew in line with expectations in the second quarter.

The eurozone posted a large surge in its trade surplus with the rest of the world in June from May, data released by the EU statistics office showed.

Euro - EUR

The single currency gained as the eurozone posted a large surge in its trade surplus with the rest of the world in June from May, data released on Friday by the European Union statistics office showed, as exports grew faster than imports on the month. Eurostat said that the 19-country bloc recorded in June a surplus of 18.1 billion euros. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1722 and a high of 1.1747 before closing the day around 1.1728 in the New York session.

Yen - JPY

The Japanese Yen traded lower after U.S data showed producer prices posted their largest annual increase in more than a decade in the 12 months through July, suggesting inflation pressures remain strong. The producer price index (PPI) for final demand increased 1.0% last month after rising 1.0% in June. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.29 and a high of 110.2 before closing the day around 110.39 in the U.S session.

British Pound - GBP

The British Pound was little changed yesterday as analysts expected the Bank of England to make no moves in its monetary policy after official data showed Britain’s economy grew in line with expectations in the second quarter. The Office for National Statistics said the economy grew by 4.8% in the second quarter. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3793 and a high of 1.3876 before closing the day at 1.3806 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar - CAD

The Canadian Dollar edged lower against its U.S counterpart as data suggesting U.S inflation pressures remain strong raised pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce economic stimulus and investors braced for a Canadian federal election. Adding to pressure on the loonie, the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 0.2% lower. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2497 and a high of 1.2531 before closing the day at 1.2523 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar - AUD

The Australian Dollar fell against most of its major peers in today’s Asia-Pacific trading session. Investors started to hit the sell button on the Aussie Dollar yesterday after Australia’s capital city, Canberra, started a snap lockdown. Weakness accelerated overnight as US traders digested the news. The new lockdown will affect nearly 400,000 people. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7326 and a high of 0.7362 before closing the day at 0.7331 in the New York session.

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

Market participants now turn their focus to U.S consumer inflation

  ​There are just over 2 weeks to go before the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Symposium and investors are buying U.S dollars on the premise that the Fed will set the stage for tapering in September. The U.S economy came roaring back this summer as vaccinations increased. 

Last week’s strong non-farm payrolls report sealed the deal for bets on monetary tightening.

Consumer prices are due for release today and a good number would reinforce expectations for taper in the fall, driving the dollar higher. USD/JPY, which rose to its highest level in 3 weeks could extend its gains towards 111 while EUR/USD, which dropped to its lowest level since April could continue to slide towards 1.16. With that said, traders need to beware of a possible US CPI miss. Last month, consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly 13 years and after such a rapid increase, a slowdown is likely. Lumber prices which hit a record high of $1515 in late May have fallen 69%. 

Used car prices also fell -2.6% month over month in July according to the Manheim Used Vehicle Index which analyzes more than 5 million used vehicle transactions annually.

CPI is still expected to increase as firms pass on higher costs to willing price takers but on a year over year and even month to month basis, the pace of growth should slow ever so slightly.

EUR/USD sank to a 4 month low on the back of the German ZEW survey. Although the current conditions index improved to 29.3 from 21.9, the expectations component fell for the third month in a row. The decline from 63.3 to 40.4 was much greater than expected. Investors are worried that the Delta variant could cause a fall slowdown in Germany. 

The best performing currency was the Australian dollar which shrugged off a sharp decrease in business confidence and more restrictions in Australia. The government expanded the COVID lockdown to rural areas outside of Sydney on concerns that the virus has spread beyond city limits. 

The Canadian dollar strengthened against the greenback yesterday as oil clawed back some recent losses and the U.S Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure package, with the currency recovering from its weakest level in nearly two weeks. 

U.S stock markets rose to record highs after the Senate passed a bipartisan package that could provide the nation's biggest investment in decades in roads, bridges, airports and waterways.

Euro - EUR

The single currency fell yesterday as Germany's ZEW survey found investor sentiment deteriorated for the third month in a row in August due to fears that rising COVID- 19 infections could hold back the recovery in Europe's largest economy. Market participants now turn their focus to U.S consumer inflation data. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1733 and a high of 1.1767 before closing the day around 1.1735 in the New York session.

Yen - JPY

The Japanese Yen fell after upbeat U.S jobs data bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve could soon start tapering its massive bond-buying program. U.S job openings, a measure of labor demand, hit a record high in June while hiring also increased, the Labor Department said in a monthly survey on Monday. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 110.00 and a high of 110.33 before closing the day around 110.26 in the U.S session.

British Pound - GBP

The British Pound rose to an 18-month high against the euro yesterday as signs of economic recovery and falling COVID-19 rates spur expectations of a far earlier interest rate lift-off compared to the eurozone. Against the dollar, the pound hovered near two-week highs. Sterling has performed well in recent weeks as a fall in COVID-19 cases. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3839 and a high of 1.3892 before closing the day at 1.3844 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar - CAD

The Canadian Dollar strengthened against the greenback as oil clawed back some recent losses and the U.S Senate passed a $1 trillion infrastructure package, with the currency recovering from its weakest level in nearly two weeks. Canada sends about 75% of its exports to the United States, including oil, which has been pressured in recent weeks. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2528 and a high of 1.2585 before closing the day at 1.2573 in the New York session.

Australian Dollar - AUD

The Australian Dollar continued to play second fiddle to the U.S dollar today, though a sharp divergence in the fortunes of their domestic economies was favoring the kiwi for now. In Australia, the economic recovery has been upended by the Delta variant with Melbourne today forced to extend its lockdown by another week and Sydney no nearer to opening. Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7326 and a high of 0.7362 before closing the day at 0.7331 in the New York session.

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This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.

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U.S payrolls were a game-changer

The dollar climbed against major peers today, reaching a four-month high versus the euro, as traders positioned for an earlier tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus. The greenback strengthened as far as $1.1742 to the single currency, extending a 0.6% pop from Friday when a strong U.S jobs report stoked bets that a reduction in asset purchases could start this year and higher interest rates could follow as soon as 2022. 

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S currency against six rivals, rose to a two-week top 92.915. The dollar also hit an almost two-week high of 110.37 yen. U.S payrolls were a game-changer. The dollar index is eyeing a close above 93, while the currency could head for $1.1704 per euro, Weston wrote, adding that it could climb further versus the yen too should U.S yields continue to tick higher. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped 8 basis points on Friday to a two-week high of 1.3053%.

There was no trading in Tokyo today with Japan shut for a national holiday. Singapore markets were also closed. Friday's non-farm payroll report showed jobs increased by 943,000 in July compared with the 870,000 forecast by economists in a Reuters poll. Numbers for May and June were also revised up. The Fed has made the labor market recovery a condition of tighter monetary policy, and most officials back the view that a jump in inflation will prove transitory, though there is debate over how prolonged it could be. 

Traders will be keenly watching a U.S consumer price report on Wednesday. Last week, Fed vice-Chair Richard Clarida suggested that conditions for hiking interest rates might be met as soon as late 2022. 

The Australian dollar eased slightly against a broadly stronger greenback on Monday, as lower commodity prices and continued lockdowns in the country hurt sentiment, while the Kiwi also came under selling pressure but had recovered by midday. Lower prices for iron ore, one of Australia’s main exports, prices and the strength of its American counterpart following strong U.S. jobs data combined to get the Aussie off to a weaker start. Australia’s most populous state of New South Wales expanded its COVID-19 lockdown to another rural town today due to concerns the virus may be spreading from Sydney into the countryside. 

Meanwhile, iron ore futures slumped more than 5%, pressured by prospects of improved supply and weakening Chinese demand, and oil prices eased further amid worries coronavirus travel restrictions would threaten bullish expectations for demand. Over the weekend we had yet more evidence that Chinese demand for iron ore really is waning with July imports being the lowest in 14 months and on seasonally adjusted basis imports hit 16-month lows.

Euro

The single currency fell on Friday as fears around the coronavirus Delta variant, concern that economic recovery is peaking, investors reversing bets against safe-haven bonds, and an accommodative tone among central banks all pushed yields sharply lower across the world in July. The ECB adopted a symmetric 2% inflation target in July. Overall, the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.1852 and a high of 1.1892 before closing the day around 1.1862 in the New York session.

Yen

The Japanese Yen steadied as traders positioned for an earlier tapering of Federal Reserve stimulus. The greenback strengthened, extending a 0.6% pop from Friday when a strong U.S jobs report stoked bets that a reduction in asset purchases could start this year and higher interest rates could follow as soon as 2022. Overall, the USD/JPY traded with a low of 108.85 and a high of 109.32 before closing the day around 109.02 in the U.S session. 

British Pound

The British Pound was steady on Friday, holding close to the four-month high. The British currency has been a strong performer in recent weeks as COVID-19 cases - while still high - have fallen and high vaccination rates have allowed the British government to lift most social distancing rules. Currency markets were generally quiet ahead of U.S employment data. Overall, the GBP/USD traded with a low of 1.3878 and a high of 1.3936 before closing the day at 1.3914 in the New York session.

Canadian Dollar

The Canadian Dollar weakened against its U.S counterpart on Friday as oil prices fell and investors were more impressed by jobs data in the United States than in Canada, with the loonie adding to this week's decline. Canada added 94,000 jobs in July, far fewer than expected, though most of the gains were in full-time work. Overall, USD/CAD traded with a low of 1.2486 and a high of 1.2573 before closing the day at 1.2535 in the New York session. 

Australian Dollar

The Australian Dollar eased slightly against a broadly stronger greenback today, as lower commodity prices and continued lockdowns in the country hurt sentiment, while the Kiwi also came under selling pressure but had recovered by midday. Lower prices for iron ore and the

strength of its American counterpart following strong U.S jobs data combined to get the Aussie off to a weaker start Overall, AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.7408 and a high of 0.7485 before closing the day at 0.7421 in the New York session.

Euro-Yen

EUR/JPY is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also issuing a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 48 and lies below the neutral zone. In general, the pair has lost 0.29%.

Sterling-Yen

Currently, GBP/JPY is trading above 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 52 reading and lies below the neutral zone. On the whole, the pair has lost 0.02%.

Aussie-Yen

Currently, the cross is trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is giving a bearish tone and MACD is also indicating a bearish stance. The Relative Strength Index is above 40 reading and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.20%.

Euro-Sterling

This cross is currently trading below 14, 50 and 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is indicating a bearish tone and MACD is issuing a bullish signal. The Relative Strength Index is above 44 and lies below the neutral region. Overall, the pair has lost 0.27%.

Sterling-Swiss

This cross is trading above 14 and below 50, 100 days moving average. Fast stochastic is issuing a bullish stance and MACD is also indicating a bullish tone. The Relative Strength Index is above 50 and lies below the neutral region. In general, the pair has gained 0.08%.

Disclaimer

This information has been prepared for information only and does not constitute an offer or commitment. This information does not constitute investment advice as defined by the rules of the FCA.