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Monday, February 3, 2020

An overbought #DXY #GBP parlayed S&P

An overbought #DXY #dollar index’s rollover accelerated to end the week, on a combination of profit-taking and repatriation flows amid wildly diverging estimates regarding the coronavirus outbreak. A Lancet article highlighted a model suggesting the epidemic could be many multiples bigger than official tallies suggest. Beijing told nonessential businesses to remain closed until Feb. 10 according to state media.

Cable #GBP parlayed Thursday’s somewhat surprising, less-dovish rate cut pass from outgoing Carney into a rally to its highest since Jan. 7, as 2-year Gilt-Treasury yield spreads surged to -83bp from -113bp on the 17th.

In G10 FX, #sterling is the biggest mover against the USD. It came under pressure from the Asian open on the back of the usual negative weekend press. As the BBC writes, “the prime minister will use a speech in London later to call for a Canada-style free trade agreement - and threaten to walk away if one cannot be struck.”

S&Ps have made fresh lows for the week. WTI’s tumbling toward October’s 50.99 low and August’s trade war low at 50.52. #Copper inched closer to multi-year lows and L-T Fibo support. #Gold and #silver saw further safe-haven gains, buttressed by the falling #USD and DM interest rates.

Beyond weekend progress reports on the virus outbreak, the focus next week will start with Tuesday’s ISM, particularly after terrible Chicago PMI data and do with Friday's employment data.

The Q4 earnings season continues in the US - 94 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report results for fourth quarter. #Alphabet (#GOOGL), Clorox (CLX), #Ford (#F), #Disney (#DIS), General Motors (#GM), #Qualcomm (QCOM), #Kellogg (#K), #Twitter (TWTR), and #Uber (#UBER) are just a few of the big-name companies due to report their quarterly results. Meanwhile, in Europe it's the turn of the French giants with #Sanofi, #Total and #BNP Paribas all reporting this week.

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